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Claustrum's Journal
Claustrum's Journal
November 5, 2020

Biden wins new batch of ballots in PA by 50 points

Biden needs about 22 points lead for the rest of the ballots to overtake Trump's lead.


Biden's won those ballots by ~50 points, not 40.



Trump +195,953 votes
6,277,135 votes reporting
~88% estimated vote reporting
~855,973 votes remaining
Biden must win remaining votes 525,963 to 330,010.
Biden must win remaining ballots 61% - 39%.

Biden is favored. Mail ballots are HEAVILY D.

November 4, 2020

Lets put this in perspective. It's historically very hard to win against an incumbent.

Yes, we didn't get the landslide we wanted. But Biden is going to win as a challenger. Trump is going down in history as one of the very few 1 term presidents.

October 29, 2020

I don't get the talking heads talking point about the 7.9 GDP growth

Yes, that's a good number. But you don't get to claim victory without looking at why we get that kind of number. It's because the economy went into the dump and a lot of business had to close down (some temporary, some permanent). So I don't see how this is a win for Trump.

October 24, 2020

Anyone has any idea about NY-11 Max Rose chance (Staten Island/south Brooklyn district)

There is still no polling for NY-11 this cycle. There were only 2 polls back in 2018.

My assumption is the house seat will go to the party that wins on the presidential level.

Have anyone heard anything about this race? Or if someone has a different view on this race?

October 24, 2020

Sigh... When MSNBC shows a poll and Bill Krystal is the one to point out to use average rather

than any one poll.......

MSNBC, do better please....

Edit: Please don't cherry pick a poll for your horse race narrative. Use averages please.

October 23, 2020

In case you need to dispute the new MI poll from Zia that has Trump +4




It has Biden and Trump tied among black voters...

The pollster hired to do this, Zia, is a New Mexico pollster that had HRC only winning New Mexico by 2 points in 2016. (She won by 8.3 points). Why would they hire a New Mexico pollster to survey Michigan??

Did the overpoll 45 to 64 year olds intentionally 40.9% seems a lot
October 22, 2020

I guess once again, it's what the Trump admin didn't say that's important

There is no mention of foreign interference from CHINA as Trump consistently complain about.

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