Nate Cohn: That will be enough for Biden to take the lead.
Biden needs about 22 points lead for the rest of the ballots to overtake Trump's lead.
Biden's won those ballots by ~50 points, not 40.
Trump +195,953 votes
6,277,135 votes reporting
~88% estimated vote reporting
~855,973 votes remaining
Biden must win remaining votes 525,963 to 330,010.
Biden must win remaining ballots 61% - 39%.
Biden is favored. Mail ballots are HEAVILY D.
Yes, we didn't get the landslide we wanted. But Biden is going to win as a challenger. Trump is going down in history as one of the very few 1 term presidents.
Yes, that's a good number. But you don't get to claim victory without looking at why we get that kind of number. It's because the economy went into the dump and a lot of business had to close down (some temporary, some permanent). So I don't see how this is a win for Trump.
There is still no polling for NY-11 this cycle. There were only 2 polls back in 2018.
My assumption is the house seat will go to the party that wins on the presidential level.
Have anyone heard anything about this race? Or if someone has a different view on this race?
than any one poll.......
MSNBC, do better please....
Edit: Please don't cherry pick a poll for your horse race narrative. Use averages please.
It has Biden and Trump tied among black voters...
The pollster hired to do this, Zia, is a New Mexico pollster that had HRC only winning New Mexico by 2 points in 2016. (She won by 8.3 points). Why would they hire a New Mexico pollster to survey Michigan??
Did the overpoll 45 to 64 year olds intentionally 40.9% seems a lot
lurking behind Biden today???
There is no mention of foreign interference from CHINA as Trump consistently complain about.
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