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Claustrum's Journal
Claustrum's Journal
November 13, 2022

Washoe County tweeted that votes are anticipated to be posted around 7:30

Hi, fella! Washoe votes are anticipated to be posted around 7:30 this evening.

November 12, 2022

New update of current status of outstanding House races from Dave Wasserman

New House math:

Dem called/likely (212), incl. #AKAL, #CA09, #CA21, #CA47, #CA49, #CO08, #ME02, #OR06
GOP called/likely (217): incl. #CA03, #CA27, #CA45, #CO03, #NY22, #OR05
Toss Ups (6): #AZ01, #AZ06, #CA13, #CA22, #CA41, #WA03

Dems need to run the table on Toss Ups for 218.

It's possible #CA13 (Modesto) and #WA03 (Vancouver) lean slightly towards Ds at this point, and #CA41 (Riverside County) might lean ever-so-slightly towards Rs.

But #AZ01 (Scottsdale), #AZ06 (Tucson) and #CA22 (Bakersfield) are the toughest to divine at the moment.



November 12, 2022

Ralston just called NV governor race for Joe Lombardo (R)...... so sad

Ralston predicted CCM for senate but Lombardo for governor before election day. He was right sadly if networks call this one.


November 12, 2022

New ballots from Clark County in NV with about 27.3k ballots EDIT: Laxalt leading 798 votes

17.2k (63%) for CCM and 9k for Laxalt.

Laxalt in the lead with 798 votes

But there is still 24k from Clark and 20k from Washoe which both favors CCM by 2:1. She will move into the lead by tonight. There is about 10-12k ballots from deep red district that will favor Laxalt.



November 11, 2022

New summary of votes remaining in NV from Clark County elections department

50,030 mail ballots to be count
15,900 will be tabulated today
34,130 are at tray inspection and counting board (not all will be counted today)

Not included above
9,659 ballots to cure
5,555 provisional ballots


EDIT: Assuming we get 60k votes from Clark and CCM gets 60% of the votes, she will get 12,000 votes more than Laxalt. It looks like it will be close but it's very possible that CCM will get 65+% and have a much higher lead than this.

There is also about 20k votes from Washoe which came in 60%+ for CCM yesterday.

Conclusion, I think there is more than enough votes for CCM to win.

November 11, 2022

LOL.... Republicans are so angry with Wasserman for calling AZ for Kelly last night

that he was forced to post a disclaimer.

Disclaimer: as has always been the case, the personal judgments offered by this account regarding election results are not official race "calls" and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Cook Political Report, NBC News or any other entity.


I've seen enough: Sen. Mark Kelly (D) wins reelection in #AZSEN, defeating Blake Masters (R).


November 11, 2022

Oh no... Wasserman just said it's hard to see Boebert losing with new votes that came in

extending her lead to 1136. He is not calling the race yet but well....

Now that #CO03 Rep. Lauren Boebert (R) has expanded her lead over Adam Frisch (D) to 1,136 votes with additional ballots counted in blue-leaning Pueblo County, much tougher to see her losing.


November 10, 2022

Ralston said that if Cortez keeps up the 60+% of votes like the first batch in NV

she will be ahead out of the 84k votes that's expected to be counted.

First Clark dump of only 14K new ballots and CCM reduces statewide deficit to 18K.

Ds have to love first dump, gaining 5K out of first 14K ballots, with 65 percent to 30 percent spread.

That's first 14K of 84K in Clark.

If margins continue like that, she will be ahead.



November 10, 2022

Ralston just said there are 61k votes in the drop boxes mentioned earlier today for NV

So there will be roughly 145k more votes. Ralston said the democratic party wanted it to be in the 100k+ range from the drop boxes. So we are probably a bit short. It will be a close one depending on the mail in ballots that will be coming in throughout the week.

Also, as
reminds me, there are 4K more that went into Washoe today, so the total is 61K there and 145K overall.


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