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Member since: Wed May 20, 2020, 11:42 AM
Number of posts: 26

Journal Archives

Pa could put Biden over the top on purpose

Source: data

Even if things tonight go well in Georgia for Biden there are still about 12,000 military and overseas ballots to be counted tomorrow no network will call Georgia even if Biden is leading tonight. Nevada is in a holding pattern but I am not to worried about it. Arizona may cause a problem but who knows.
However, they are counting ballots through the night in Philly and I think people there would like to see Biden be put over the top by Pennsylvania. As long as they keep updating it might be worth watching.

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Bad Polling or Low Turnout?

Source: many experts

If you had said turnout would only be at most 145,000,000 voters that would suggest using lower turnout models which would be very favorable to Trump. All that I heard for weeks was that turnout would be 150 to 160 million and if that had happened Biden might get 400+ electoral votes. It didn't happen that way.
I think if you went to 538, the Economist model, Charlie Cook, Larry Sabato and Sam Wang and told them 145,000,000 would be cast ....maybe lower.... all the polling would be much closer.
Then again during a Pandemic it might be hard to model turnout.

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Florida and independents

Source: polls

The one thing everyone should know about Florida. In 2012 Obama won and was almost the exact margin he won independents by. In 2016 Trump won by almost the exact amount he won independents by.
I would expect that before votes are officially counted that the Republicans may have an edge in votes totals over Democrats. There has been a dramatic increase in No Party Affiliation and the 4 A+ rated polls done before election days had Trump losing Independents from between 17 to 20 points. If that is true, then the GOP could be ahead of pure Democrats votes by almost 200,000 votes and the Independents could carry Biden.
It could be very close.

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