Cheezoholic
Cheezoholic's JournalReminder Hurricane warnings and storm surge warnings now for the NE coast of Fl now
and Hurricane watches and storm surge warnings now in effect from SE GA up through Charleston county SC.
Tampa Bay has dropped 5 feet since this morning. Its gonna get backhanded hard
as the back of this thing passes.The high tide will be coming in all along the SW Fl coast from now through about 6 pm unfortunately. Also the St. Johns river is already backing up and beginning to enter flood stage. This thing is gonna be a water killer. They are expecting record river flooding all across central to NE Fl.
Can't say enough about the men and women of the Hurricane Hunters
Both from NOAA and the Air National Guard. Reorts are they've had a rough 24 hours dealing some very severe turbulence trying to get a handle on this thing. Hat's off and Thank you! 
New very important info and changes in the 11am update! Stay smart and stay safe down there....
ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022
]Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter data was absolutely
critical this morning in diagnosing the rapid intensification of
Ian, despite both planes undergoing multiple eyewall penetrations
experiencing severe turbulence. That data supported an intensity of
about 135 kt a few hours ago. Since that time, high-resolution
Tampa Doppler radar data has been sampling the eyewall near 10,000
ft with winds up to 155 kt, indicating that Ian is on the threshold
of category 5 status. The maximum winds are set to 135 kt on this
advisory.
Ian is expected to make landfall in southwestern Florida in the next
few hours as a catastrophic hurricane. No changes were made to the
track forecast near Florida, except to be faster to come into line
with the latest consensus aids. One important change is that Ian
is likely to remain more intact as it crosses the Florida peninsula
(due to both its stronger initial wind speed and its faster forecast
forward speed), and this now increases the threat of hurricane-force
winds on the east coast of Florida. This necessitates the issuance
of a Hurricane Warning on the east coast of central Florida. While
significant re-strengthening of Ian might not occur over the
Atlantic Ocean, model guidance has been catching up with a
trough interaction from a shortwave over the southern United
States, and are stronger than yesterday on Ian's intensity with
more baroclinic forcing. Thus, a Hurricane Watch has been issued
from northeastern Florida northward up the coast through most of
coastal South Carolina. The new intensity forecast is raised from
the previous one, near the latest statistical-dynamical guidance.
Key Messages:
1. Catastrophic storm surge inundation of 12 to 18 feet above ground
level along with destructive waves are expected somewhere along the
southwest Florida coastline from Englewood to Bonita Beach,
including Charlotte Harbor. Residents in these areas should urgently
follow any evacuation orders in effect.
2. Catastrophic wind damage is beginning along the southwestern
coast of Florida today near the landfall location. Hurricane-force
winds are expected to extend well inland along near the core of Ian.
Preparations to protect life and property should be urgently rushed
to completion.
3. Heavy rainfall will spread across the Florida peninsula through
Thursday and reach portions of the Southeast U.S. later this week
and this weekend. Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic
flooding is expected across portions of central Florida with
considerable flooding in southern Florida, northern Florida,
southeastern Georgia and coastal South Carolina. Widespread,
prolonged major and record river flooding is expected across
central Florida.
4. Hurricane conditions are expected along the east-central Florida
coast overnight, where a Hurricane Warning has been issued.
Hurricane conditions are possible from northeastern Florida to
portions of South Carolina on Thursday and Friday, and a Hurricane
Watch has been issued for that area.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/1500Z 26.3N 82.5W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 27.3N 82.1W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND
24H 29/1200Z 28.3N 81.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 30/0000Z 29.3N 80.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 30/1200Z 30.8N 80.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 01/0000Z 32.9N 80.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 01/1200Z 34.7N 81.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 02/1200Z 36.0N 81.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Blake
I still want to know from Cassidy Hutchinson's testimony
when she said she went to the car Meadows was in to tell him they where breaching the capitol after the 1/6 speech he shut the door and was on the phone for nearly 30 minute's refusing to acknowledge her, which was very unusual according to her, who the fuck was he talking, texting to whatever. She made a point that she was very surprised he was ignoring her.
This fucking California real estate con man McCarthy buddy is in so deep on not just 1/6 but he was put in charge of moving shit from the white house to FSB a Lago. He's either doing everything he can to cover his fat ass or he's gonna blow it all open. He's key. Who the fuck was he talking to while she stood outside the car?
Monday noon update on Ian from Dr. Levi Cowan
Listen to this guy, he knows his shit
Folks along the west coast of FL dont let your guard down
The models are doing the windshield wiper and are now shifting farther east with Ian. Like I posted before they have struggled all summer with these strong troughs moving through the central CONUS. We are getting close to 120 hours out and the accuracy will increase as time decreases. I can't emphasize enough a Cat 4/5 coming in at this angle, if that occurs, could be Michael hitting 1000 times the amount of people that storm affected. Charley took a hard right, its not the same as a strengthening system moving water NNE for days into a catchers mit with nowhere to go. The model trends have shifted back east tonight and thats reflected in the new NHC cone.
The NHC is what should be followed but I will say from experience tracking storms anything that is stacked and already a hurricane has the potential to bomb like crazy around the western tip of Cuba. Those who remember Wilma, this is where she blossomed.
Just please take this thing super seriously. A Cat 5 storm in the early 1900's put almost all of Pinellas county under water.
Very good video on the future of TS Ian from Levi Cowan
There's nobody better on the web explaining these things. He puts up at least 1 video a day.
He also has a great website
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/
TS Ian, folks really need to be paying attention
especially along the west coast of FL. I am not normally an alarmist when it comes to these storms but this one really has my, and many other weather nerds, ears perked. There have been many comparisons to Hurricane Charley because of the the current forecast path. That is understandable but also foolish. Don't count on a hard right like Charley.
Hopefully the intensity models forecasters use are smoking crack but they have been very consistent the last 48 hours spitting out intensity numbers I've rarely seen in my 30 years of nerd tracking for a storm just formed in the last 24 hours.
The Tampa Bay area needs to be on extra high alert over the next 48 hours. Pinellas county has one of the highest number of trailers per square mile in the entire country, self explanitory. Plus, if it comes quick, there's no way off of that peninsula in time. I lived there for 12 years, still have friends and family there, and if I still lived there my ass would be gone by tomorrow night if trends continue. The potential for a storm like Michael plowing right into the bay area from the SSW is definitely on the table. If you live in the area have a plan in place now not to stay but to leave as early as possible. If it gets within 36 hours of a big one youre not going to be able to leave Pinellas county.
The Tampa Bay area has been at the top of list of vulnerability to a major hurricane for decades. John Hope (whose daughter Hurricane Camille was named after when he was at the NHC) used to say a strengthening major Cat 4 or 5 coming from the SSW into central Pinellas county could lead to the largest loss of life from a hurricane since the great Galveston storm, and he was a very smart man.
Once again I'm not trying to be an alarmist but please pay very close attention to this coming storm. The water, atmosphere and geography are almost perfectly aligned for this one. Be smart Be safe 
Folks from the central Gulf coast to the Keys be alert
With focus on Fiona mother nature pulls her favorite trick of misdirection. The system in the western Carib is entering an area weather nerds call the Cat 5 generator around the western tip of Cuba. a lot of us on weather boards have been watching this sneaky system for a week while focus was on Fiona. The NHC classified it as a depression with forecast to a major basically as soon as it was classified. This could be a quick hitter catching the public by surprise. Please get your info from the NHC and not theses youtube crackpots. There's potential for this one to be a Tampa Bay pusher which well is the most vulnerable area in the Gulf for a northern pushing strengthening major storm in the far eastern GOM..
A link for storm reports from the Caribbean I've been using for decades
It's nothing fancy but its information straight from the regular folks down there. Posts from the various islands (and Bermuda) are on the right side of the page. Sometimes they're scary sometimes they're humorous (island people can have a strange sense of humor lol.).
I have visited many of the islands in the past and have many friends scattered around the various islands and family in Puerto Rico.
If you're interested in what's going on during storms down there its a great resource. The Turks and Caicos are currently taking the brunt and there are several reports from DR and Puerto Rico. So far the damage is not as bad as it could've been, but it's still pretty bad. Mind you these aren't disaster newscasters (i hate weather newscasters), just folks like you and me. And as a note, these folks really prepare like no others. The US could take some lessons from them.
Anyway, if anyone is interested....
https://stormcarib.com/
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