David Shor is telling Democrats what they don't want to hear.

President Biden’s agenda is in peril. Democrats hold a bare 50 seats in the Senate, which gives any member of their caucus the power to block anything he or she chooses, at least in the absence of Republican support. And Senators Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema are wielding that leverage ruthlessly.

But here’s the truly frightening thought for frustrated Democrats: This might be the high-water mark of power they’ll have for the next decade.

Democrats are on the precipice of an era without any hope of a governing majority. The coming year, while they still control the House, the Senate and the White House, is their last, best chance to alter course. To pass a package of democracy reforms that makes voting fairer and easier. To offer statehood to Puerto Rico and Washington, D.C. To overhaul how the party talks and acts and thinks to win back the working-class voters — white and nonwhite — who have left them behind the electoral eight ball. If they fail, they will not get another chance. Not anytime soon.

[Get more from Ezra Klein by listening to his Opinion podcast, “The Ezra Klein Show.”]

That, at least, is what David Shor thinks. Shor started modeling elections in 2008, when he was a 16-year-old blogger, and he proved good at it. By 2012, he was deep inside President Barack Obama’s re-election campaign, putting together the fabled “Golden Report,” which modeled the election daily. The forecast proved spookily accurate: It ultimately called the popular vote within one-tenth of a percentage point in every swing state but Ohio. Math-geek data analysts became a hot item for Democratic Party campaigns, and Shor was one of the field’s young stars, pioneering ways to survey huge numbers of Americans and experimentally test their reactions to messages and ads

https://nyti.ms/2WRI2qT

https://news.yahoo.com/democratic-data-scientist-warns-party-133408235.html

I Just Wasn't Made For These Times - The Beach Boys

Dame Vera Lynn - 1990 Royal Variety Performance

New Report that Democrats are Losing Midwest Factory Towns

The New York Times
Democrats Lost the Most in Midwestern 'Factory Towns,' Report Says
Jonathan Martin
October 6, 2021, 7:46 am
Half of Michigan’s voting population lives in the type of midsize and small manufacturing communities that the report focused on. (Getty Images)

WASHINGTON — The share of the Democratic presidential vote in the Midwest declined most precipitously between 2012 and 2020 in counties that experienced the steepest losses in manufacturing and union jobs and saw declines in health care, according to a new report to be released this month.

The party’s worsening performance in the region’s midsize communities — often overlooked places like Chippewa Falls, Wisconsin, and Bay City, Michigan — poses a dire threat to Democrats, the report warns.

Nationally and in the Midwest, Democratic gains in large metropolitan areas have offset their losses in rural areas. And while the party’s struggles in the industrial Midwest have been well-chronicled, the 82-page report explicitly links Democratic decline in the region that elected Donald Trump in 2016 to the sort of deindustrialization that has weakened liberal parties around the world.

https://news.yahoo.com/democrats-lost-most-midwestern-factory-114643377.html

1/6 defendant Brandon Straka to plead guilty.

It's supposed to happen tomorrow. He's a bit up the food chain. He was the head of some organization of former liberals for Trump and visited Mar-A-Lago at least once
He spoke at a Jan 5 rally and possibly on Jan. 6. He had a felony dropped a month ago and recently posted on twitter to his followers that they make might hear negative news about him. Marcy Wheeler thinks his deal might have been made in return for cooperation that has already happened.
He's the first one to plead who would know about 1/6 planning. We should find out tomorrow about any cooperation.

A Second Giant Chinese Real Estate Developer Has Defaulted.

A second Chinese real estate developer Fantasia Properties has defaulted on its debts. The default follows that of Evergrande a week before. Fantasia missed a payment of $315 million dollars on Monday.
It's the second one. Many more will follow.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/05/business/china-real-estate-fantasia-default-intl-hnk/index.html

Jim Chanos: Your time has come!

The Birth of the Blues - Johnny Carson and Friends

The Charleston - James P. Johnson

Best Flannel Sheets

Everyone in New England knows the luxury of flannel sheets in the winter. So warm and soft you never want to get out of bed.
The NY Times rated 14 sets recently. Their ratings seem to factor in value and comfort. Their top three (price is for a queen set):
1. LL Bean (no surprise) Ultrasoft Comfort. Luxury Portuguese flannel. $120
2. Target Threshold. Incredible bargain. Offered in many changing patterns. In short supply now. They get restocked throughout the winter $30.
3. LL Bean Premium Supima: Even thicker and softer than 1. Perhaps lower rated because of the much higher price $200.
Apparently they have been doing these ratings for years. Durability is taken into account.

https://www.nytimes.com/wirecutter/reviews/best-flannel-sheets/

Dirty Old Town - Chad and Jeremy