Trouble ahead? What 4 recession indicators say about the economy

[kurtcagle]

1. Recession will come about nine months from now.

The market bears an eerie resemblance to June 1999. Employment seems to be "relatively" strong, but in a number of sectors, you're seeing churn, where layoffs are taking place more and more frequently with longer periods between re-employment. Speculators are jumping into risky investments (Bitcoin anyone?), while early stage VC has been drying up for awhile now, all of which indicate that there are fewer real opportunities for investors to get good returns from less risky ventures.

I remember being at a tech conference in Nov 1999 where I was warning people that tech market was on the verge of collapsing. There were a lot of angry people afterwards, but I do remember one or two contacting me about a year later who said they took my warning to heart and pulled out of the markets, and were glad they had. This may end up being a rout for the Republicans - going into the midterm elections with a highly unpopular president, a government shutdown, that abomination of a tax "relief" bill and an economy teetering on the edge of recession is NOT a good place for a majority incumbant to want to be.