General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: Gallup no longer considers Texas a Republican state. [View all]Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)Arizona is the next state on the flip agenda. That state has already produced competitive statewide races despite not a full push, and an exit poll revealing 27% self-identified liberals.
I can guarantee Texas would not have 27% liberals or anything close to that. Probably more like 21 or 22%, if that.
The number of self-identified conservatives in Texas would almost certainly be 40% or above. That's the dividing line for currently out of reach. I always have to laugh when Rachel Maddow or other gullible types tout flimsy state polls in states that always feature 40+% self-identified conservatives. They have never studied the numbers or the trends so anything sounds cute and possible to them.
Of course, the state has been off the table in terms of exit polls so I am mostly estimating. In the near future I'm sure there will be statewide exit polls in the state as it moves closer to level. Recently the only thing we've had from Texas is primary exit polls.
The problem in Texas is participation. The raw numbers of likely Democratic leaning blocks are sufficient, but they aren't registered and don't turn out dependably even if they are registered. Whites and older higher income Texans dominate the ballot box while blacks, Hispanics and naturalized citizens have been badly lagging their true numbers.
We needed to be pushing registration everywhere while Trump's approval rating was lowest. I managed to register three young people here in Miami, one I met at the golf course and two who did work on my home. They expressed anti-Trump sentiment but when I asked if they were registered they said no. I helped them get registered and I'm confident they will follow through.