General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: Too many people are blaming Hillary's loss on the wrong thing. [View all]Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)Obama steadily turned off the white working class and Hillary was going to have to deal with it. That was always the huge obstacle entering 2016, and it's the reason I didn't plan to pay any attention to that presidential race. All the logical numbers in key demographics pointed to a narrow Hillary defeat. It was only when Republicans seemed determined to actually nominate Donald Trump did I think Hillary might have a chance.
Here is one of the articles from immediately after the 2014 midterm. There were tons of them. I'm sure Rachel Maddow was paying no attention at all. But for anyone who has Republican friends and especially among that angry white working class male group, it could not have been more glaring what to expect from that block in 2016. The 2014 midterm was merely a warmup:
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2014/12/can-clinton-win-back-the-white-working-class/383280/
Comey definitely decided the race. Hillary had low upside and she never actually enjoyed the huge edge as indicated in the polls. Those simplistic angry males do not show up in representative proportion in pre election polling. Besides, independents wanted change and they always favored Trump. Hillary had no opportunity to win big.
But minus Comey and even with the Facebook atrocities Hillary would have squeaked out an electoral win and managed roughly 1.5 to 2 points greater margin in the popular vote.