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Awsi Dooger

(14,565 posts)
7. Still too many conservatives and not enough liberals
Fri Jul 27, 2018, 12:03 AM
Jul 2018

I prefer the mathematical foundation as a guideline. The nation in 2016 was 35% self-identified conservatives and 26% liberals. Contrast to Georgia, which reported 42-22 and Texas at 44-20.

Those are still many cycles away. We only win those states if the national slant is so severe that all the more friendly states have already joined.

Arizona is the more logical opportunity, at 41-27. Once a state reports 27% liberals then all systems are Go, if not for 2020 then 2024 or 2028. Just have to get the number of conservatives down to 37 or 38%. Arizona is an older state with 25% of voters aged 65 or above. Contrast to the national percentage of 16% in that category. That's partially why Arizona is so promising. I don't mean to be morbid about this but bottom line many of Trump's supporters in Arizona from 2016 won't be alive in 2020, or 2024. Granted, older people move to retire there.

Georgia and Texas are slightly younger than the national average in terms of voters aged 50 and up, which means persuasion is key and that's more difficult. We can't rely on shifting age of the population to provide several points in our direction.

Of course Trump endorsed Kemp, he's a cheat Ilsa Jul 2018 #1
Kemp must be the one Putin is going to hack for. C Moon Jul 2018 #10
This would be a great win for democrats in Georgia and in America. beachbum bob Jul 2018 #2
Wow! Couldn't have done it without GA Republicans. Hortensis Jul 2018 #3
Charlie doesn't make a status change like that on a whim DFW Jul 2018 #4
That is good news, however, Kemp is SoS in charge of voting machines & data. CottonBear Jul 2018 #18
Good. Don't let up! DFW Jul 2018 #19
Kemp should recuse himself adminstering and counting voting as Secretary of State kimbutgar Jul 2018 #5
That should be the law. lagomorph777 Aug 2018 #21
Been saying for a long time now blue-wave Jul 2018 #6
Still too many conservatives and not enough liberals Awsi Dooger Jul 2018 #7
Georgia is different, this race is different. Blue_true Jul 2018 #13
A lot of R's just dont like Kemp. They could stay home. But Abrahms also has issues. 7962 Jul 2018 #14
Kemp has something like 10 times the debt that she has. Blue_true Jul 2018 #20
Kemp has always come off to me as kind of stupid and fake hueymahl Jul 2018 #8
Republican candidates should recuse themselves in all elections bucolic_frolic Jul 2018 #9
Don't get excted! Kemp controles the voting machines and in Ga.............. MRDAWG Jul 2018 #11
Believe it or not, I think the winner of the GOP SoS runoff backs paper ballot trails. 7962 Jul 2018 #15
We Georgians need 100% paper ballots & NO electronic voting machines. N/T CottonBear Jul 2018 #17
If I were going to manipulate GA elections this is exactly as I'd want it to look at this point, too Crash2Parties Jul 2018 #12
They're already runinning the smear commercials against Stacy Abrams. GoCubsGo Jul 2018 #16
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