A very real path to taking the Senate Part II

[Awsi Dooger]

16. I don't believe in late movement in general elections

Far more often it is a myth or a mirage. Primaries are like-minded people so that can shift wildly in the late going, like water in a tank.

General elections are exponentially more rigid. Those stacks of liberals and conservatives are smack in front of you, and not going anywhere. They repel any late meaningful shift, especially if it is against the highest stack.

I am always going to stick to that big picture outlook and ignore late polling trends. We are not going to have a late meaningful wave against stacks of 42% conservatives or 44% conservatives.

Trump defied the polling in 2016 because of the Comey letter and the very poor modeling that understated not only how many white working class voters would show up, but in what percentage they would support Republicans. In short, Hillary never actually led by the margins the polls were claiming, even without Comey. Once Comey was stupid enough to intervene it shifted a narrow Hillary electoral victory to the disaster we face now.

I believe it will be a quiet night here in the senate. Some mathematical models have Democratic control at 6% to 10% likely. The 6% model was posted here last night by someone else. Here is a 10% model:

https://markets.predictwise.com/politics/14978-2