In the discussion thread: Are Theresa May's Days Numbered as Prime Minister [View all]
Response to ZeroSomeBrains (Original post)
Wed Dec 5, 2018, 05:40 PM
muriel_volestrangler (92,212 posts)
8. Saying Corbyn is the "front-runner" is a bit optimistic
Opinion polls put the Tory and Labour percentage of the vote within the margin of error, with the notional lead swapping: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2018
The bookmakers think the Tories are slightly more likely to get the most seats - odds of 19/20, compared to 11/10 for Labour: https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics Though those odds are quite confusing - Corbyn is only 4/1 to be the next PM, but the odds for May to be out by April 2019 are over 50%. This indicates they think there's a good chance May will resign the party leadership, and hand over to another Tory (though nobody has a good idea who). With the odds for 'most seats' so close, another hung parliament would look like the most likely result of a general election. How that'd work out, who knows - the DUP would again offer a Tory leader support, but explcitly for a hard Brexit now - which might still alienate enough Tories to sink it. But if Corbyn needed SNP support, they might hesitate, unless they see a way of fixing Brexit and taking credit. |
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Author | Time | Post |
ZeroSomeBrains | Dec 2018 | OP | |
YessirAtsaFact | Dec 2018 | #1 | |
Denzil_DC | Dec 2018 | #2 | |
ZeroSomeBrains | Dec 2018 | #4 | |
Denzil_DC | Dec 2018 | #10 | |
ZeroSomeBrains | Dec 2018 | #14 | |
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ZeroSomeBrains | Dec 2018 | #19 | |
Denzil_DC | Dec 2018 | #20 | |
BannonsLiver | Dec 2018 | #15 | |
Denzil_DC | Dec 2018 | #18 | |
TreasonousBastard | Dec 2018 | #3 | |
ZeroSomeBrains | Dec 2018 | #6 | |
TreasonousBastard | Dec 2018 | #22 | |
grantcart | Dec 2018 | #5 | |
malaise | Dec 2018 | #7 | |
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muriel_volestrangler | Dec 2018 | #8 |
ZeroSomeBrains | Dec 2018 | #9 | |
OnDoutside | Dec 2018 | #13 | |
ZeroSomeBrains | Dec 2018 | #17 | |
Denzil_DC | Dec 2018 | #12 | |
OnDoutside | Dec 2018 | #11 | |
brooklynite | Dec 2018 | #21 |
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