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Response to EffieBlack (Original post)

Sun Jan 27, 2019, 12:26 PM

67. Most online spaces, and especially DU, are populated by highly self-selected groups.

The screenshot that you showed only reflects the fact that most people who will vote for Bernie no longer post on DU.

I think Skinner pointed out that the 2016 primaries were about 90-10 for Bernie on DU at the time. That doesn't square with the total numbers in your screenshot.

The overwhelming majority of voters are what I would refer to as "retail voters": They lean in some direction, maybe even strongly so, but don't feel compelled to voice their opinions all over the internet, especially not in highly partisan forums such as DU. They are not activists. But they are the ones who decide the outcome of every election. And for them name recognition and "looking as if you could win" are major factors.

The problem with online spaces and polls are that a comparatively small number of people, such as say 1000, can appear as if they were a massive force. But in a country of 300 million they are a negligible number. That is why I am highly suspect of anything that "generates enthusiasm on Twitter" and the like.

Bernie has a "following" of hardcore, vocal, haters, for sure. How relevant they are in the broader scope of things remain to be seen. Bernie's biggest "problem demographic" remains old white males. One a quantitative level, they are the ones who like him the least.

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