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Response to ProfessorPlum (Original post)

Tue Feb 19, 2019, 01:44 PM

51. Amy has great instincts, and more margin for error than other possibles

Here in Florida I'd love to have Andrew Gillum as governor. Issue to issue he fits my desires. But I made a strategic vote for Gwen Graham in the primary because I understood the terrain, and the situational realities of what Gillum would face in a fall general election, given that Tallahassee FBI situation. It didn't matter if there was nothing to the FBI stuff. Fear sells.

We essentially turned victory into defeat via inept tunnel-vision handicapping by our primary voters, and probably took Bill Nelson down as well due to attachment with Gillum.

I don't want 46% of Americans saying our 2020 nominee is too liberal for the country. That was the number assigned to Gillum in the Florida exit poll. Defeating an incumbent is a monumental task. Everyone here is more or less taking it for granted, which is supreme idiocy. Unless we have the ideal nominee who doesn't forfeit a vital one percent here or there, it will be another razor tight finish.

Klobuchar is best suited from regional and ideology perspective. Frankly I don't want to be running someone who is easily mocked as another coastal liberal...only this time it would be coastal socialist. I post on enough sports sites to know how that would play out. I am a math guy and when I saw Klobuchar's numbers from Minnesota last year I immediately detected how far she exceeded expectation in swing areas. I didn't need Nate Silver's chart a few days later.

More than anything, I have always believed charisma and likability are essential to defeating a presidential incumbent. I started posting that here in 2002. Beto and Klobuchar fit above anyone else. Once I saw how Amy handled the Kavanaugh hearing, it screamed as by far the best performance by any of our senators, in terms of how it would play out with the masses and a personality that translated to a long general election battle. I posted that here instantly, while others were looking for claws. Amy was relaxed, flexible and effective.

You don't have to reflexively respond to everything immediately. It can only lead to trouble. When Kamala Harris made that "modern day lynching" comment last week regarding Smollett I wanted to cringe. It is precisely what I would worry about with her, as opposed to Amy Klobuchar and her superior instincts. I have already posted the theme regarding Harris several times. She has always been on the offensive, given a prosecutor role, attorney general, ideology of her state, and senate hearings. All it takes is a handful of flubs like that in a fall campaign and all the great qualities are demoted, in favor of fear.

Our voters are handicapping Kamala as more special than Amy. The reality is reversed. By far the best combo is someone who comes across as moderate during a campaign but governs as a liberal.

I realize Amy will not win the nomination. Our voters are determined to nominate someone outspokenly liberal. That would be great if 2020 set up like 2018, with an 8 point generic edge. 2020 will be balanced terrain but unfortunately the party that dominates the first term midterm is always absurdly overconfident two years later and loses sight of situational influence.

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ProfessorPlum Feb 2019 OP
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LineReply Amy has great instincts, and more margin for error than other possibles
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