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Response to TwilightZone (Reply #8)

Wed Apr 24, 2019, 12:45 AM

24. It doesn't require a big swing in the electorate for those two outcomes

Nobody will like this. I don't want to be playing the bad guy around here but so often the perspective is ridiculous.

Trump is only a minor underdog in 2020. Virtually a coin flip. It takes next to nothing for an incumbent to move up sufficiently and pull out a race like this. If the economy does not falter by mid 2020, then Trump becomes the favorite, regardless of any other variable.

Our current House numbers are based on a +8 national margin. It is next to impossible that we will have +8 in the generic vote again in 2020. It simply doesn't work that way in presidential years as compared to midterms. Now, our incumbents will get a boost from incumbency so it wouldn't require a full +8 nationally for all of them to survive. But it probably requires +6 or +7. Those suburban districts are fragile as hell. We don't figure to get +6 or +7. Far more likely than not, we will lose House seats in 2020. I hope posters here are prepared for that reality, instead of lollipop notion that we'll have another windfall. The posters who expect another House gain are the same ones who didn't understand that we were almost certain to lose senate seats in 2018.

Again, I realize my reputation around here would be better if I merely shut up when topics like this arise. But I can't shut up and be true to myself, when misconception is so blatant. We are indeed in an incredibly precarious situation. I'm not fully opposed to impeachment but it contains considerable risk. The party that wins big in the midterm always gets a stupid idea that suddenly it is the beloved side and nothing can possibly go wrong the next time.

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stopbush Apr 23 OP
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LineLineLineLineReply It doesn't require a big swing in the electorate for those two outcomes
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