HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Main » General Discussion (Forum) » If Ds don't impeach, & tR... » Reply #24

Response to TwilightZone (Reply #8)

Wed Apr 24, 2019, 12:45 AM

24. It doesn't require a big swing in the electorate for those two outcomes

Nobody will like this. I don't want to be playing the bad guy around here but so often the perspective is ridiculous.

Trump is only a minor underdog in 2020. Virtually a coin flip. It takes next to nothing for an incumbent to move up sufficiently and pull out a race like this. If the economy does not falter by mid 2020, then Trump becomes the favorite, regardless of any other variable.

Our current House numbers are based on a +8 national margin. It is next to impossible that we will have +8 in the generic vote again in 2020. It simply doesn't work that way in presidential years as compared to midterms. Now, our incumbents will get a boost from incumbency so it wouldn't require a full +8 nationally for all of them to survive. But it probably requires +6 or +7. Those suburban districts are fragile as hell. We don't figure to get +6 or +7. Far more likely than not, we will lose House seats in 2020. I hope posters here are prepared for that reality, instead of lollipop notion that we'll have another windfall. The posters who expect another House gain are the same ones who didn't understand that we were almost certain to lose senate seats in 2018.

Again, I realize my reputation around here would be better if I merely shut up when topics like this arise. But I can't shut up and be true to myself, when misconception is so blatant. We are indeed in an incredibly precarious situation. I'm not fully opposed to impeachment but it contains considerable risk. The party that wins big in the midterm always gets a stupid idea that suddenly it is the beloved side and nothing can possibly go wrong the next time.

Reply to this post

Back to OP Alert abuse Link to post in-thread

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 72 replies Author Time Post
stopbush Apr 2019 OP
marble falls Apr 2019 #1
SunSeeker Apr 2019 #4
marble falls Apr 2019 #17
trev Apr 2019 #18
SunSeeker Apr 2019 #20
TwilightZone Apr 2019 #2
SunSeeker Apr 2019 #7
TwilightZone Apr 2019 #8
SunSeeker Apr 2019 #13
Trumpocalypse Apr 2019 #26
SunSeeker Apr 2019 #34
uponit7771 Apr 2019 #42
Trumpocalypse Apr 2019 #44
SunSeeker Apr 2019 #49
Trumpocalypse Apr 2019 #50
stopbush Apr 2019 #56
Trumpocalypse Apr 2019 #59
stopbush Apr 2019 #62
Trumpocalypse Apr 2019 #63
SunSeeker Apr 2019 #60
Trumpocalypse Apr 2019 #61
SunSeeker Apr 2019 #64
Trumpocalypse Apr 2019 #65
SunSeeker Apr 2019 #66
Trumpocalypse Apr 2019 #68
SunSeeker Apr 2019 #69
Trumpocalypse Apr 2019 #70
SunSeeker Apr 2019 #71
Trumpocalypse Apr 2019 #72
Post removed Apr 2019 #35
Trumpocalypse Apr 2019 #46
uponit7771 Apr 2019 #41
Trumpocalypse Apr 2019 #45
Norbert Apr 2019 #48
stopbush Apr 2019 #14
LineLineLineLineReply It doesn't require a big swing in the electorate for those two outcomes
Awsi Dooger Apr 2019 #24
manor321 Apr 2019 #3
USALiberal Apr 2019 #6
SunSeeker Apr 2019 #12
USALiberal Apr 2019 #5
stopbush Apr 2019 #15
ReformedGOPer Apr 2019 #22
Trumpocalypse Apr 2019 #28
SoCalDem Apr 2019 #47
MurrayDelph Apr 2019 #9
sarcasmo Apr 2019 #10
PoindexterOglethorpe Apr 2019 #11
dawg day Apr 2019 #32
PoindexterOglethorpe Apr 2019 #36
roamer65 Apr 2019 #16
MarcA Apr 2019 #19
DontBooVote Apr 2019 #23
quickesst Apr 2019 #21
dawg day Apr 2019 #30
quickesst Apr 2019 #40
stopbush Apr 2019 #57
quickesst Apr 2019 #67
UniteFightBack Apr 2019 #25
RandySF Apr 2019 #27
dawg day Apr 2019 #29
democratisphere Apr 2019 #31
Xolodno Apr 2019 #33
stopbush Apr 2019 #58
triron Apr 2019 #37
BlueTsunami2018 Apr 2019 #38
Locutusofborg Apr 2019 #39
Lock him up. Apr 2019 #43
Demsrule86 Apr 2019 #51
Trumpocalypse Apr 2019 #52
Calista241 Apr 2019 #53
wryter2000 Apr 2019 #54
stillcool Apr 2019 #55
Please login to view edit histories.