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ProfessorGAC

(64,990 posts)

15. Even Within The Snip, I See Questionable Premises

Tue Dec 3, 2019, 10:16 AM

Dec 2019

First, monetary policy has been designed to keep inflation low. Since it has been quite low, it has been effective. One can argue the merits of that strategy, and could make a case that real GDP growth under this strategy is tough to maintain. But, on its face, that premise is false.
Second point of concern is the 3rd above.
What is described there is not really applicable to the Great Depression. The shift in the world order was the ascent of the US to economic dominance. But, that had been occurring for nearly 50 years by 1929.
Also, changes in technology cannot be reasonably correlated to depressive impact, because the tech explosion from 1985-2000 actually propelled the economy and standard of living, particularly in the 90s.
So, it appears 2 of the 3 basic foundational items for the prediction are, at best arguable, and at worst, provably incorrect.

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We Are on the Brink of the Second Great Depression (Forbes) [View all] Snarkoleptic Dec 2019 OP

Frightening article. Mike 03 Dec 2019 #1

Federal officals know it's getting rough, as evidenced by- Snarkoleptic Dec 2019 #3

Thanks. His meddling with the Fed is extremely unnerving. Mike 03 Dec 2019 #14

And if a 2nd depression does happen ... aggiesal Dec 2019 #25

Thanks for posting Sherman A1 Dec 2019 #2

No, we're not. Goodheart Dec 2019 #4

Thanks for the detailed response! Nt USALiberal Dec 2019 #10

Well, I'm pretty concerned because the debt has reached unsustainable levels, PatrickforO Dec 2019 #21

Well said! nt c-rational Dec 2019 #27

That was so thought provoking and added Ferrets are Cool Dec 2019 #26

So If The Repugs Know This Wouldn't They Want To.... global1 Dec 2019 #5

Trump needs to stay in office to avoid presecution. Snarkoleptic Dec 2019 #6

AGAIN he makes all decision based on what is good for himself. Never We the People. Always..... usaf-vet Dec 2019 #9

If so, a Democrat will have to clean up the mess StarfishSaver Dec 2019 #7

same as it every was. also following the elephants w the brooms and shovels. mopinko Dec 2019 #11

Their arguments have merit bucolic_frolic Dec 2019 #8

One caution is that lots of these analysts are 'goldbugs' who Snarkoleptic Dec 2019 #17

This is their goal Johnny2X2X Dec 2019 #12

Wow great video extvbroadcaster Dec 2019 #13

Even Within The Snip, I See Questionable Premises ProfessorGAC Dec 2019 #15

Thank you for writing this mahina Dec 2019 #19

Thank you for these salient points n/t Kitchari Dec 2019 #20

+1, doesn't look like banks are locking up money flow ... quite the opposite. uponit7771 Dec 2019 #29

Add to that this alarming statistic UpInArms Dec 2019 #16

What we have here is productive overcapacity from QE1-2-3 and it's still continuing bucolic_frolic Dec 2019 #18

Part of a Russian plot to destroy us? I'd once have laughed at that. Hortensis Dec 2019 #22

Second Great Recession, anyway. sandensea Dec 2019 #23

BUY GOLD! SansACause Dec 2019 #24

We are in different times than the first GD. roamer65 Dec 2019 #28

And if the wingnuts get their way,,, quid amateur quo Dec 2019 #30

When gold bugs start gnashing their teeth about fiat currency tritsofme Dec 2019 #31