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progree

(10,864 posts)
63. "If the gains of 2019 are erased & it causes people to rethink their support of this psychopath..."
Mon Mar 2, 2020, 02:42 AM
Mar 2020

I couldn't help but do the numbers:
S&P 500 closing prices
3386   2/19/20 all time high
2507   12/31/18 at close of 2018

It would take a 26.0% drop from the all time high to erase the gains of 2019
so that would be a serious plunge but not a great crash. (We're already 12.8% down from the all time high as of Friday's close)
(They usually measure the severity of a drop from the previous all time high, particularly one that's close in time like this one).

That's an ordinary bear market

https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-stock-bear-markets-and-their-subsequent-recoveries-2388520

Bear markets are defined as periods when the stock market declines by 20% or more from the highest point to its subsequent lowest point. From 1900–2014, there were 32 bear markets. Statistically, they occur about once every 3.5 years and last an average of 367 days.


So yes, it's going to happen in the not-so-distant future. The reason we've gone this long without one is because of how far down we went in the last one (57% drop from peak to trough as measured by the S&P 500).

So if it's going to happen in the next one, two, three, four years, I'd much much rather have it happen before November than after.

I am convinced Trump would probably win if the economy was where it was in January and early February with substantially sub-4% unemployment and monthly job gains in the 150,000-200,000 range.

Since WWII, when the economy was good under a Republican president, a Democratic presidential candidate has never won. Democrats trying to unseat the Republicans only do so when the economy is trending poorly (or crashing). Some analysis I read in the Washington Spectator, but I think its true, although the number of sample points obviously is quite small.

I'm pretty sure Trump would lose if we had a recession begin, along with a bear market (or worse) but the NBER, which is the official score-keeper of recessions, takes a year to call one after it starts. So that's too late. But the unofficial but widely used definition of recession in the meantime is two back-to-back quarters of negative real GDP growth. Before the election that means Q2 and Q3 both have to be negative. Q3 ends September 30, and the first estimate of Q3 GDP will be in late October.

But anyway if things are obviously crashing (and with job losses), people won't need to wait to see the Q3 estimate to have their votes influenced.

Counting the so called double-dip recession of 1980-82 as one recession,

we've had 8 recessions since 1945: 1953, 1958, 1960-61, 1973-75, 1980-82, 1990-91, 2001, 2007-2009
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States

which averages one every 9.4 years on average (starting from and including 1960-61, its one every 10 years on average).

either way we're overdue since the last one ended in June 2009.

And not to mention if the coronavirus turns out to be bad...
Of course not, that is nonsense. mahina Feb 2020 #1
The financial hit is worth it if it takes down Trump budkin Feb 2020 #2
Having gas at about $5 a gallon Dagstead Bumwood Feb 2020 #5
Yeah, that'd be great. cwydro Feb 2020 #9
Didn't think it necessary Dagstead Bumwood Feb 2020 #17
Good. Sorry, but I have seen people here hoping for that. cwydro Feb 2020 #19
I focus all of my negative thoughts and wishes Dagstead Bumwood Feb 2020 #22
With you on that! cwydro Feb 2020 #25
Well, more than just one person... Wounded Bear Mar 2020 #40
focus harder! n/t orleans Mar 2020 #46
I'm re-watching Dagstead Bumwood Mar 2020 #48
I know we're sorta friends and all (maybe not after this) but I'm rooting for $10/gallon gas mr_lebowski Mar 2020 #78
I'm not in favor customerserviceguy Mar 2020 #60
Neither am I Dagstead Bumwood Mar 2020 #81
If people were serious about reducing fossil fuel usage, it needs to be much higher than $5 MichMan Mar 2020 #71
I paid 1.95 at the pump today. Dagstead Bumwood Mar 2020 #82
Sell! Sell! Sell! Shermann Feb 2020 #3
I've been expecting the market drop, and been accused of 'rooting for it'... Wounded Bear Feb 2020 #4
Same here. LuvNewcastle Mar 2020 #39
Despite how incompetent the Trump Administration is yuiyoshida Mar 2020 #84
I'm sure not, but I've seen that on DU. cwydro Feb 2020 #6
It has crossed my mind, but no. Polly Hennessey Feb 2020 #7
Insane... I lost $5500 on my RSUs lapfog_1 Feb 2020 #8
Looks like you're getting your answer in several responses to this thread. cwydro Feb 2020 #10
I'm rooting for COVID-19 to get Drumpf and Pence, actually. n/t rzemanfl Feb 2020 #11
What rzemanfl said. Sugar Smack Feb 2020 #15
Wall Street is full of crooks GusBob Feb 2020 #12
If rooting for something caused it intrepidity Feb 2020 #13
If Coronavirus causes a stock market collapse, that means more disease and more deaths. Cousin Dupree Feb 2020 #14
I'm rooting for sane government that values lives over politics flibbitygiblets Feb 2020 #16
Only ones I see spreading things like this Andy823 Feb 2020 #18
Fuck no. nt jmg257 Mar 2020 #74
of course not, but that will be the bee ess the Trumpigists will be spreading. Thomas Hurt Feb 2020 #20
Sixty percent of Americans make less than forty thousand dollars a year pecosbob Feb 2020 #21
Because the feeling is mutual...nt Wounded Bear Mar 2020 #41
No! My husband is quite ill and we've Laurian Feb 2020 #23
I'm not too worried about the stock market captain queeg Feb 2020 #24
***YES I AM, ABSOLUTELY***. I don't think Trump can be beaten in November if the stock market progree Feb 2020 #26
I don't want to see people stillcool Feb 2020 #27
Nope... 2naSalit Feb 2020 #28
I'm, that's a big no. That is where my IRA money is bottomofthehill Feb 2020 #29
No one wants the stock market to crash. eilen Feb 2020 #30
Lots of gleeful posts here on DU everytime it drops MichMan Mar 2020 #59
I want it to crash hard Calculating Feb 2020 #31
Hell No if the stock market collapses it will carry over in to the economy and affects jobs housing lunasun Feb 2020 #32
Make no mistake,that POS would NEVER give presser on a Sat..... Bengus81 Feb 2020 #33
I'd rather a hamburger got him Joinfortmill Feb 2020 #34
No, but when millions of people warned what a disaster the Retrumplicans would be maxrandb Feb 2020 #35
What goes up must come down TexasBushwhacker Feb 2020 #36
+1000 smirkymonkey Mar 2020 #42
Couple the stock buy backs with a big helping of irrational exuberance TexasBushwhacker Mar 2020 #47
Not really Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin Feb 2020 #37
Stock market rownesheck Feb 2020 #38
No. I want a stock market collapse so I can make money from it. roamer65 Mar 2020 #43
A long overdue correction to this bloated, overvalued stock market is a good thing. ooky Mar 2020 #44
Wall Street has been enjoying their ill gotten gains for awhile RhodeIslandOne Mar 2020 #45
Ugh. Fox News is the fucking worst! Initech Mar 2020 #49
I wish Bloomberg would buy Fox News. walkingman Mar 2020 #54
Not at all, but all the same, it had no business being as high as it was DFW Mar 2020 #50
My pension is invested in the stock market, so, no. nt tblue37 Mar 2020 #51
If that's what it takes. We can recover from another collapse with good leadership. The markets brewens Mar 2020 #52
No - I'm hoping the market recovers without the FED - everything is so politicized these days. walkingman Mar 2020 #53
Only if it beats quick results. Cartoonist Mar 2020 #55
No, I want Trump to hurt Trump and his enablers... WePurrsevere Mar 2020 #56
Actually I was rooting for a host of God's seraphim Vogon_Glory Mar 2020 #57
I'm rooting for a half a dozen SallyHemmings Mar 2020 #58
That's why we have yuiyoshida Mar 2020 #61
I'm rooting for people to see what a menace Trump is when crisis strikes SiliconValley_Dem Mar 2020 #62
"If the gains of 2019 are erased & it causes people to rethink their support of this psychopath..." progree Mar 2020 #63
I think you can count the Coronavirus yuiyoshida Mar 2020 #64
Investors don't seem to be all that worried at this point -- S&P 500 futures up 0.50% progree Mar 2020 #66
Frankly with the incompetence of the Trump Administration yuiyoshida Mar 2020 #67
Yes. My biggest worry is the very small number of people who have been tested. progree Mar 2020 #68
Did you think the crash in 2008 was a good thing ? MichMan Mar 2020 #70
I'm not rooting for a crash that severe, which was the worst collapse since the Great Depression progree Mar 2020 #75
No! bobGandolf Mar 2020 #65
fuck no Demonaut Mar 2020 #69
um, no. Javaman Mar 2020 #72
better question: is the GOP supporting Trump's lies scrabblequeen40 Mar 2020 #73
No, I'm retired and can't afford it. The Velveteen Ocelot Mar 2020 #76
No. exboyfil Mar 2020 #77
"Even a whiff of that from our leadership would lead to an electoral wipe out." LenaBaby61 Mar 2020 #79
No Mz Pip Mar 2020 #80
Nope... though I did buy some more whistler162 Mar 2020 #83
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