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Response to MichMan (Reply #70)

Mon Mar 2, 2020, 03:09 PM

75. I'm not rooting for a crash that severe, which was the worst collapse since the Great Depression

Last edited Mon Mar 2, 2020, 09:54 PM - Edit history (5)

but we're overdue for a severe stock market pullback. If we're going to get one in the next 1-5 years, which I think is inevitable from stock market history, I'd rather it be before November than afterwards.

This chart of the S&P 500 illustrates what I talked about as far as bear markets and recessions in post #63:

https://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-data

Do you see the little gray bands? Those are recessions. They happen an average of about every 10 years. We're past that -- we're in the longest expansion in history.

Do you see the bigger dips? They happen, with bear markets (20% or more) every 3.5 years on average.

Do you think Trump's presidency so far and 2 Supreme Court picks was a good thing? I didn't.

Do you want him to pick another 2 Supreme Court picks? I don't

Do you think millions losing health insurance coverage is a good thing? I didn't. I think it is genocide.

And he's still whacking away at it in every way he can. The ACA was saved only by 1 vote in the Senate. But he keeps whittling away on the ACA with executive orders and court challenges to be eventually ruled on by the most conservative Supreme Court in history.

Are you happy with him unraveling the social safety net? I'm not.

Are you happy with his response to Coronavirus so far? I'm not.

Are you happy that he can launch nuclear weapons at any time? I'm not.

Do you think it's only a minor problem that we won't start dealing with the climate crisis until no sooner than 2025? I don't. As it is, I doubt that any climate scientist really thinks we're going to stay within 1.5 deg C. There is some hope for 2.0 deg C.

Seeing what we're already seen out west and in Australia and yada at +1.0 C, a +2.0 C deg world would make the damage from the 2008 crash look like a walk in the park. Especially if we do pass a catastrophic climate tipping point that we haven't already passed. You know, things like permafrost melting 70 years earlier than projected.

Four more years of Trump (with an inevitable big stock market pullback or crash before his second term is over) will do a hell of a lot more harm to the economy and Americans and the world than a pullback in the stock market through November. Far more. Far far more.

I have most of my nest egg in equities, and I'm old and long retired, so I'm not happy either watching the balance go down down down. But if it gets the psychopathic nuclear-button-enabled shit maggot out of office, it is absolutely, completely, and totally worth it. Particularly considering it's almost a certainty (see those graphs again) that we're going to get a big downturn anyway before his 2nd term is over).

And the stock market always recovers and goes on to set new all-time highs. It always has. It has never, ever, set a new all-time low. Never.

People don't lose in a market downturn unless they panic and sell. If you hold on, it's a temporary paper loss.

(Although all bets are off if we continue with Caligula-style policies and/or catastrophic global heating, something to think about for those who are whimpering about their 401k's)

The choice: a temporary paper loss before November, or having the psychopathic nuclear-button-enabled shit maggot for 4 more years and big stock market pullback or crash in his second term?

Looking at a lot of replies to this thread, there are a lot of people who seem to think their retirement savings are never going to suffer from a big dip. ("I don't want to lose any more money in my 401k" ). That somehow, something has eliminated economic and stock market cycles. That somehow, a recession or big stock market downturn (in the 40% or more range, like 73-74, 2001, 2008-9) will never happen again, bar a massive Spanish flu like pandemic or other massive external shock. I am just appalled by the degree of this mass delusion.

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LineLineLineLineNew Reply I'm not rooting for a crash that severe, which was the worst collapse since the Great Depression
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