Am I missing something? The way I see it the state lockdowns are outside Trump's control

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8. Point taken, I don't think many states or businesses will cave, but it does matter

I think the businesses and states that have been leading the actual policy against covid-19 will continue to do the right thing. Cities and blue states in particular.

But then donnie will use this as an excuse to restrict federal funds to those states. It might not affect the course of covid-19 much, but it will fulfill a wet dream of his, getting to send money to red states while refusing to send money to blue states.