General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: Without a vaccine, can we ever get back to "normal"? [View all]Igel
(35,300 posts)there's no chance of the virus spreading.
There's a large pool of susceptible humans out there. Ultimately either it's eradicated worldwide or it's herd immunity acquired through infection or vaccination that'll keep it in check.
The models go out 24 months. We only look at the first couple of months. The long-range models don't assume that if you didn't get it this time around you're forever immune.
In fact, "flattening the curve" just means that the infection will spread out over time. It barely moves the needle on the total number of cases under the curve. Think of a graph with a rectangle on it. It can be tall but narrow, or short and wide. Same area--same number of people affected. The only thing that'll help keep illnesses down is a vaccine; the thing that'll keep deaths down are things like antivirals.