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In reply to the discussion: Trump will kill off so many older GOP voters in swing states that it will cost him the election [View all]Celerity
(42,674 posts)21. the numbers of deaths they project are ludicrously high, the study is very flawed
Quote
Even with shelter-in-place orders remaining in effect, about 11,000 more Republicans than Democrats who are 65 and older could die before the election in both Michigan and North Carolina.
In Pennsylvania, should the state return to using only social distancing to fight infections, over 13,000 more Republican than Democratic voters in that age category could be lost.
In Pennsylvania, should the state return to using only social distancing to fight infections, over 13,000 more Republican than Democratic voters in that age category could be lost.
Snip
To get to 11,000 to 13,000 MORE dead Rethugs than Dems in each of states you are talking about over 100,000 of deaths in EACH STATE (100,000 deaths per state minimum, and probably a lot more (look right below at how many deaths the study predicts for PA), as those states have high African American population (%-wise) large cities, and PoC are dying at much higher rates, so that is also a mitigation factor.
look at the study
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10841806.2020.1752978
As an example, if the results of the calculations noted in Table 3 were applied to the outcomes of the 2016 presidential election, a significant narrowing of the results in the closest contests would occur. For instance, Pennsylvania is implementing a social distancing action showing a projection of 190,000 adult fatalities including across the three age categories 1849 (7,600), 5064 (30,400), and 65+ (152,000). After accounting for voter participation, the calculations show that among age group one, 953 more Democratic voters than Republicans voters would lose their lives. In age group two, 1,824 more Republicans than Democrats would potentially perish while in age group three 13,680 more Republicans would potentially perish. Cumulatively, 14,551 more Republicans than Democrats would perish under these projections, a significant change given that Trump carried the Commonwealth by 44,292 votes.
now look at the actual numbers
As of today, North Carolina has has 667 TOTAL DEATHS
Michigan 4825
Pennsylvania 4429
The study is extremely flawed, as it was based on very early flawed models itself.
If you think 190,000 people are going to die from COVID-19 in just PA by November 3rd, 2020, then I have a bridge in London to sell you.
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Trump will kill off so many older GOP voters in swing states that it will cost him the election [View all]
SouthernCal_Dem
May 2020
OP
A lot of the ones that don't die will get sick of his incompetence and lying
captain queeg
May 2020
#1
I think the bigger impact will be on those too fearful to show up at the polls.
Renew Deal
May 2020
#2
The other thing that would likrly kill off more Trumpers is that they are the ones screaming to
napi21
May 2020
#5
The fact that this doesn't bother them at all means they've already gamed the system so that they
BamaRefugee
May 2020
#17
I used to fret over the death tolls.. still do for fellow health care prof, the elderly and those
Thekaspervote
May 2020
#9
the numbers of deaths they project are ludicrously high, the study is very flawed
Celerity
May 2020
#21