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Celerity

(42,674 posts)
21. the numbers of deaths they project are ludicrously high, the study is very flawed
Sat May 16, 2020, 05:09 AM
May 2020

Quote

Even with shelter-in-place orders remaining in effect, about 11,000 more Republicans than Democrats who are 65 and older could die before the election in both Michigan and North Carolina.

In Pennsylvania, should the state return to using only social distancing to fight infections, over 13,000 more Republican than Democratic voters in that age category could be lost.


Snip

To get to 11,000 to 13,000 MORE dead Rethugs than Dems in each of states you are talking about over 100,000 of deaths in EACH STATE (100,000 deaths per state minimum, and probably a lot more (look right below at how many deaths the study predicts for PA), as those states have high African American population (%-wise) large cities, and PoC are dying at much higher rates, so that is also a mitigation factor.


look at the study

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10841806.2020.1752978

As an example, if the results of the calculations noted in Table 3 were applied to the outcomes of the 2016 presidential election, a significant narrowing of the results in the closest contests would occur. For instance, Pennsylvania is implementing a social distancing action showing a projection of 190,000 adult fatalities including across the three age categories 18–49 (7,600), 50–64 (30,400), and 65+ (152,000). After accounting for voter participation, the calculations show that among age group one, 953 more Democratic voters than Republicans voters would lose their lives. In age group two, 1,824 more Republicans than Democrats would potentially perish while in age group three 13,680 more Republicans would potentially perish. Cumulatively, 14,551 more Republicans than Democrats would perish under these projections, a significant change given that Trump carried the Commonwealth by 44,292 votes.



now look at the actual numbers

As of today, North Carolina has has 667 TOTAL DEATHS

Michigan 4825

Pennsylvania 4429


The study is extremely flawed, as it was based on very early flawed models itself.

If you think 190,000 people are going to die from COVID-19 in just PA by November 3rd, 2020, then I have a bridge in London to sell you.

A lot of the ones that don't die will get sick of his incompetence and lying captain queeg May 2020 #1
I think the bigger impact will be on those too fearful to show up at the polls. Renew Deal May 2020 #2
I would think those types would not consider voting for him JI7 May 2020 #4
Yes, but that works against us. MAGAts are cannon fodder. Celerity May 2020 #19
Not their seniors. Renew Deal May 2020 #26
this remains to be seen, I hope you are correct Celerity May 2020 #27
Never underestimate the reserve of microcephalic individuals out there. CentralMass May 2020 #3
The other thing that would likrly kill off more Trumpers is that they are the ones screaming to napi21 May 2020 #5
This! I'm in Florida and people have lost Phoenix61 May 2020 #12
Any chance you are a fellow Hunkerdowner?? AllyCat May 2020 #18
Maybe they'll be a little more receptive to voting by mail. Qutzupalotl May 2020 #6
This potential impact to tRump's base is likely anticipated yonder May 2020 #7
The fact that this doesn't bother them at all means they've already gamed the system so that they BamaRefugee May 2020 #17
Bye Don! Blue Owl May 2020 #8
I used to fret over the death tolls.. still do for fellow health care prof, the elderly and those Thekaspervote May 2020 #9
That's what I keep thinking & that their Kill Plan Cha May 2020 #10
I don't think there is a kill plan. murielm99 May 2020 #11
Yeah it's just an offshoot.. Cha May 2020 #15
But if they vote by mail nakocal May 2020 #13
Didn't he manipulate the electoral college by under 100,000 votes? fierywoman May 2020 #14
The Wisconsin Supreme Court may have just handed the election to Biden Quixote1818 May 2020 #16
This message was self-deleted by its author Celerity May 2020 #20
the numbers of deaths they project are ludicrously high, the study is very flawed Celerity May 2020 #21
But they don't have to die, just enough of them need to see the light Rstrstx May 2020 #23
But that is not what the OP article and study are claiming, nor I am claiming that Trump will win. Celerity May 2020 #25
I don't think so. I don't agree. Jamastiene May 2020 #22
karma can solve many issues, and this is one for sure beachbumbob May 2020 #24
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