The lack of response from Trump -- and from his GOP supporters -- should be alarming to EVERYONE. [View all]

[soothsayer]

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Asha Rangappa
@AshaRangappa_
THREAD. Read this piece if you already haven't. And then consider where this, and the Russia bounty scandal, fits in with the bigger picture of Trump's responses -- *especially to activities conducted by the GRU*, Russia's military intelligence service. A refresher:

Ryan Goodman
@rgoodlaw
<thread>

I just published:

"Trump Pushed CIA to Give Intelligence to Kremlin, While Taking No Action Against Russia Arming Taliban"

Relying on interviews with several former Trump administration officials who spoke to me on the record.

https://justsecurity.org/71279/trump-pushed-cia-to-give-intelligence-to-kremlin-while-taking-no-action-against-russia-arming-taliban/

Asha Rangappa
·
Jul 9, 2020
Replying to @AshaRangappa_
2. I'm back. OK -- let's start with the GRU's hack of the DNC server in July 2016. The IC made this attribution in the summer of that year, and later, the Special Counsel actually INDICTED 12 GRU officers -- detailing the hack keystroke by keystroke -- in federal court

Asha Rangappa
@AshaRangappa_
3. TRUMP'S RESPONSE: After spending months claiming that it could be "anybody," including a "400lb guy in his basement in New Jersey," he settled on the hack being conducted by...Ukraine. He stuck with that story through the impeachment

AP FACT CHECK: Trump sticks with the debunked Ukraine theory https://t.co/okgbyNWlCJ?amp=1

Asha Rangappa
·
Jul 9, 2020
Replying to @AshaRangappa_
3. Next, the IC, as well as the Senate Intelligence Committee, also assessed that the GRU had targeted the voter registration systems of all 50 states, and had succeeded in at least probing the vast majority of them
A voter casting his ballot in the midterm elections last year in Medina, N.D.
Russia Targeted Election Systems in All 50 States, Report Finds
nytimes.com

Asha Rangappa
@AshaRangappa_
4. TRUMP'S RESPONSE: Dude wanted to create a "cybersecurity partnership" WITH RUSSIA to address...election meddling. Fortunately this was early enough (2017) that the typical GOP enablers shot it down


Trump backtracks on cyber unit with Russia after harsh criticism https://t.co/Sbhj659klk?amp=1


Asha Rangappa
·
Jul 9, 2020
Replying to @AshaRangappa_
5. In 2018, the GRU tried to poison Russian spy for Britain, Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia, using a banned nerve agent in Salisbury England. Britain, along with several of its allies, retaliated by expelling Russian diplomats (we expelled 60)

Asha Rangappa
@AshaRangappa_
6. TRUMP'S RESPONSE: Trump was "furious" when he discovered that we had expelled so many Russian diplomats. Trump wanted to "match" the number expelled by other countries (4), and was afraid of being *portrayed* as "tough on Russia" by doing much more

https://t.co/kPLjki7duW?amp=1


Asha Rangappa
·
Jul 9, 2020
Replying to @AshaRangappa_
7. P.S. As an aside, when Russia expelled 775 diplomats from Russia in 2017 as a response for the sanctions and expulsions by Obama in response to election meddling, Trump THANKED HIM and told him the diplomats cost us too much money anyway

Trump says he is ‘very thankful’ to Putin for expelling U.S. diplomats from Russia
washingtonpost.com https://t.co/VhUJ3oCXmU?amp=1

Asha Rangappa
@AshaRangappa_
8. Trump's acquiescence to Putin's activities, particularly through the GRU, has serious implications for our national security. First, every intel and nat sec expert has warned that Putin is a high risk-taker who will continue to push the envelope until stopped.


Asha Rangappa
·
Jul 9, 2020
Replying to @AshaRangappa_
9. Second, we can look at what Putin is doing on other countries as a precursor for what he is planning and would like to do here. As @wiczipedia notes in her book "How to Lose the Information War," 2016 was a refined iteration of Putin's operations in eastern Europe since 2007

Asha Rangappa
@AshaRangappa_
10. So what can we expect? Well, since there has been no consequences to its 2016 election interference, I think there is a high likelihood that the GRU will try to tamper with actual registrations or votes (a reprise of Ukraine), as I noted here

Asha Rangappa
@AshaRangappa_
THREAD. The “mail voter fraud” narrative is about more than a fear of increased turnout among Dems. It’s also about facilitating foreign interference, including Russia tampering with voter registrations and actual votes, and distracting the public from that effort. Here’s why:

Asha Rangappa
·
Jul 9, 2020
Replying to @AshaRangappa_
11. But it could be worse. In 2016, the GRU tried to stage a coup in Montenegro, by *assassinating* the Prime Minister and installing a pro-Russia government (they got caught). Violence is their MO, as @alexzfinley and @john_sipher have written

Why the 2020 Election Will Be A Mess, Part II
justsecurity.org https://t.co/yPTqdJSrB0?amp=1

Asha Rangappa
@AshaRangappa_
12. But, you say, surely Russia would NEVER try anything so bold and direct, like an assassination, in the U.S., right? Well, why not? The Skripal poisoning, and now the bounties -- which *are assassinations* -- on U.S. military personnel, is being met with ZERO consequences



Asha Rangappa
@AshaRangappa_
13. This is why the lack of response from Trump -- and from his GOP supporters -- should be alarming to EVERYONE. It makes Russia bolder, and it gives them a green light to bring the tactics they are using elsewhere to the U.S. If we don't take action, we can expect the worst.