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In reply to the discussion: Are any of you all following the election forecast at FiveThirtyEight ? [View all]Le Roi de Pot
(744 posts)5. That is not the spead of votes -- it is odds of winnng.
imagine having a jar with three thousand balls .. right now roughly 2000 have Biden's name and 1000 has Trump's name .. and a ball will be drawn at random ..
So Trump has a very good shot at winning the electoral college.
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Are any of you all following the election forecast at FiveThirtyEight ? [View all]
Le Roi de Pot
Aug 2020
OP
I thought Hillary was around 72% the day of the vote, per 538 ... was it lower? (nt)
mr_lebowski
Aug 2020
#4
If the polls were say 90 - 10 or even 60-40 ...the chance of Trump winning would be ZERO
Le Roi de Pot
Aug 2020
#34
I gave up on both polling and gambling odds after the last presidential election.
Chainfire
Aug 2020
#6
Nate Silver libertarian sometimes dotard defender is not the best pollster to follow....period!!
Thekaspervote
Aug 2020
#7
He's an incumbent president with high support amongst his own (racist) party.
radius777
Aug 2020
#11
They're Monte Carlo simulation electoral college results based on the error distributions of polls
Klaralven
Aug 2020
#13
Is 538 looking at the post office's efforts in blue states/areas to not deliver mail-in ballots,
KS Toronado
Aug 2020
#16
NO! trumpie put dejoy in charge of the P.O. to help him win the election, & he's going to.
KS Toronado
Aug 2020
#24
"538's forecast model is only about 50% based on polls, with the other 50% based on other factors"
Awsi Dooger
Aug 2020
#31
3 new national polls out today, including Rasmussen, which has Biden 46/Trump 45 nt
Fiendish Thingy
Aug 2020
#26