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In reply to the discussion: Are any of you all following the election forecast at FiveThirtyEight ? [View all]Klaralven
(7,510 posts)13. They're Monte Carlo simulation electoral college results based on the error distributions of polls
So if a poll for a given state polled 1000 voters and 520 chose Biden and 480 chose Trump, the poll would be reported as 52% for Biden and 48% for Trump.
But the sampling error on 520 samples is something like +-23. So there is about a 68% chance that the true situation is that Biden is between 497 and 543. In fact there is about a 16% chance that Biden's support is actually less than Trumps.
So in a Monte Carlo simulation, in 16% of the runs, that state would fall into the Trump column instead of the Biden column.
I'm sure 538s analysis is more completed and accounts for historical errors of each pollster, as well as correlation of errors between states, but that is the gist of it.
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Are any of you all following the election forecast at FiveThirtyEight ? [View all]
Le Roi de Pot
Aug 2020
OP
I thought Hillary was around 72% the day of the vote, per 538 ... was it lower? (nt)
mr_lebowski
Aug 2020
#4
If the polls were say 90 - 10 or even 60-40 ...the chance of Trump winning would be ZERO
Le Roi de Pot
Aug 2020
#34
I gave up on both polling and gambling odds after the last presidential election.
Chainfire
Aug 2020
#6
Nate Silver libertarian sometimes dotard defender is not the best pollster to follow....period!!
Thekaspervote
Aug 2020
#7
He's an incumbent president with high support amongst his own (racist) party.
radius777
Aug 2020
#11
They're Monte Carlo simulation electoral college results based on the error distributions of polls
Klaralven
Aug 2020
#13
Is 538 looking at the post office's efforts in blue states/areas to not deliver mail-in ballots,
KS Toronado
Aug 2020
#16
NO! trumpie put dejoy in charge of the P.O. to help him win the election, & he's going to.
KS Toronado
Aug 2020
#24
"538's forecast model is only about 50% based on polls, with the other 50% based on other factors"
Awsi Dooger
Aug 2020
#31
3 new national polls out today, including Rasmussen, which has Biden 46/Trump 45 nt
Fiendish Thingy
Aug 2020
#26