Are any of you all following the election forecast at FiveThirtyEight ?

[Awsi Dooger]

27. Nate Silver is light years superior to 270towin.com

Current polling is only partially relevant. Nate understands that while other compilers/analysts fall prey to the stupidity of absorbing current/recent polling as all you need to know

66% is the equivalent of a 4 point favorite in a football game. The mistake that was made around here in recent months was insisting that Trump's support could only collapse, that he would drop to 35% or even 30% approval. That was 100% ignorant of partisan mindset as well as the applicable math. Those stacks of self-identified conservatives and right-leaning moderates do not budge, especially not when an incumbent is running for re-election in the most favorable scenario in American politics...his party in power only one term.

Also, as I have long emphasized, Hispanics are loyal to the presidential incumbent. Issues mean nothing. Trump is going to gain among Hispanics even after treating them even worse than anticipated.

We need the right track/wrong track number to stay low. We need independents to remain on Biden's side. We need effective messaging down the stretch. In particular we need to understand that Texas is not going to happen and those funds should be redirected to Florida.

If those variables fall in line Biden should hold on for a narrow victory