Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

General Discussion

obamanut2012

(26,047 posts)

33. lol that isn't what that means

Reply to Le Roi de Pot (Reply #5)

Wed Aug 26, 2020, 03:33 PM

Aug 2020

You have zero idea how to read odds.

Well, actually I think you know what you are doing.

Your concern is noted.

Edit history

Please sign in to view edit histories.

36 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Are any of you all following the election forecast at FiveThirtyEight ? [View all] Le Roi de Pot Aug 2020 OP

33% for Trump. 66% chance for Joe? pwb Aug 2020 #1

It's actually 70/30 right now. bearsfootball516 Aug 2020 #3

I thought Hillary was around 72% the day of the vote, per 538 ... was it lower? (nt) mr_lebowski Aug 2020 #4

That's correct Polybius Aug 2020 #14

Exactly. Which means being up 66%-33% is in no way a comfortable lead (nt) mr_lebowski Aug 2020 #19

That is not the spead of votes -- it is odds of winnng. Le Roi de Pot Aug 2020 #5

Oh pleassse!! Thekaspervote Aug 2020 #9

and we have the same odds of making it a landslide ( 1 in 3) Le Roi de Pot Aug 2020 #10

Well said. Music Man Aug 2020 #30

lol that isn't what that means obamanut2012 Aug 2020 #33

If the polls were say 90 - 10 or even 60-40 ...the chance of Trump winning would be ZERO Le Roi de Pot Aug 2020 #34

Actually, that is what it means exactly. whopis01 Aug 2020 #36

It was 73% Biden, 27% Trump not very long ago. whopis01 Aug 2020 #35

I noticed it this morning too sweetloukillbot Aug 2020 #2

I gave up on both polling and gambling odds after the last presidential election. Chainfire Aug 2020 #6

This message was self-deleted by its author ProfessorGAC Aug 2020 #17

Nate Silver libertarian sometimes dotard defender is not the best pollster to follow....period!! Thekaspervote Aug 2020 #7

NAte Silver is not a pollster, he's an analyst with a good record Fiendish Thingy Aug 2020 #20

Nate Silver is light years superior to 270towin.com Awsi Dooger Aug 2020 #27

Not me. marble falls Aug 2020 #8

He's an incumbent president with high support amongst his own (racist) party. radius777 Aug 2020 #11

Links please Thekaspervote Aug 2020 #12

Check out this Morning Joe segment. radius777 Aug 2020 #22

They're Monte Carlo simulation electoral college results based on the error distributions of polls Klaralven Aug 2020 #13

I thought it included turnout models Le Roi de Pot Aug 2020 #15

Is 538 looking at the post office's efforts in blue states/areas to not deliver mail-in ballots, KS Toronado Aug 2020 #16

Oh give it a rest. LisaL Aug 2020 #18

NO! trumpie put dejoy in charge of the P.O. to help him win the election, & he's going to. KS Toronado Aug 2020 #24

Relax our Postal workers are professionals pwb Aug 2020 #29

Statistics is like a bikini texasfiddler Aug 2020 #21

Currently 69/30 odds in favor of Biden, with 1/100 chance of a tie Fiendish Thingy Aug 2020 #23

"538's forecast model is only about 50% based on polls, with the other 50% based on other factors" Awsi Dooger Aug 2020 #31

We are still two months out Javaman Aug 2020 #25

3 new national polls out today, including Rasmussen, which has Biden 46/Trump 45 nt Fiendish Thingy Aug 2020 #26

Rasmussen has all the credibility of Donald Trump Le Roi de Pot Aug 2020 #28

What about this is so difficult to grasp? LincolnRossiter Aug 2020 #32