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In reply to the discussion: Nate Silver has some competition [View all]Thekaspervote
(32,750 posts)17. If you do a search for his accuracy it's pretty weak sauce!
He bases his predictions on how a candidate did in the primaries, actual votes. Okay, but this guy is only looking at the first 3 democratic primaries in which Biden lost- IA, NH and NV which he didnt really loose NV, just wasnt in the first 2 slots.
What about the other 48 primary races where Biden blew the doors off?
Prof. norpoth, did you take into consideration that especially in NH and NV that 6-12% of the vote were gop crossover votes?? Voters who never intended on voting for the dem candidate in the general?
What a bunch of malarkey!!
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Yes, I looked him up on line. If he's not real, he has a very active group posting about him.
Shrike47
Oct 2020
#3
For the model to be correct, Biden has to lose every battleground state plus states like New York.
Shrike47
Oct 2020
#5
blackboxvoting.org is a link regarding the easily hacked electronic voting machines
judesedit
Oct 2020
#41
It makes sense yes if he had sampled all the primaries..he only looked at IA, NH and NV
Thekaspervote
Oct 2020
#25