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Bernardo de La Paz

(48,965 posts)

35. From the Wikipedia article

Reply to Turin_C3PO (Reply #4)

Sat Oct 10, 2020, 06:53 PM

Oct 2020

Norpoth developed[5] the Primary Model, a statistical model of United States presidential elections based on data going back to 1912. The Primary Model is based on two factors: whether the party that has been in power for a long time seems to be about to lose it, and whether a given candidate did better in the primaries than his or her opponent.[6]

I think the first factor outweighs the second this year. In a sense the Republicons have been running their con game for forty years, which is a long time and they look like they may fall hard this year.

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41 replies

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Nate Silver has some competition [View all] Proud liberal 80 Oct 2020 OP

Never heard of them Sherman A1 Oct 2020 #1

It's a bell weather model. jorgevlorgan Oct 2020 #2

It's like betting on the Redskins even though they no longer exist grantcart Oct 2020 #11

Pretty much jorgevlorgan Oct 2020 #14

How accurate! LeftInTX Oct 2020 #28

Yes, I looked him up on line. If he's not real, he has a very active group posting about him. Shrike47 Oct 2020 #3

Lol they have NM going red. Turin_C3PO Oct 2020 #4

And NY! sweetloukillbot Oct 2020 #15

From the Wikipedia article Bernardo de La Paz Oct 2020 #35

For the model to be correct, Biden has to lose every battleground state plus states like New York. Shrike47 Oct 2020 #5

it has NY going red!!! NRaleighLiberal Oct 2020 #6

Has Putin approved the distribution of this report? Under The Radar Oct 2020 #7

Exactly Proud liberal 80 Oct 2020 #10

That map has NY as red? Give me a break still_one Oct 2020 #8

Yep trump's gonna win NY Cattledog Oct 2020 #9

Clap if you believe! BootinUp Oct 2020 #12

Just like last time, if this happens it is a stolen election due to Russian judesedit Oct 2020 #13

Links please!! Thekaspervote Oct 2020 #18

blackboxvoting.org is a link regarding the easily hacked electronic voting machines judesedit Oct 2020 #41

Hawaii and New York red ???? Tribetime Oct 2020 #16

And He's Got... ProfessorGAC Oct 2020 #19

And NM red? Roland99 Oct 2020 #21

Someone Above Pointed That Out ProfessorGAC Oct 2020 #33

NM has a whopping 5 EC votes. PoindexterOglethorpe Oct 2020 #39

If you do a search for his accuracy it's pretty weak sauce! Thekaspervote Oct 2020 #17

It's a logical model that ran into outliers in 2020 Awsi Dooger Oct 2020 #22

It makes sense yes if he had sampled all the primaries..he only looked at IA, NH and NV Thekaspervote Oct 2020 #25

NM, HI AND NY equals quackery JDC Oct 2020 #20

The Hoarse Whisperer brings up the obvious point!! Roland99 Oct 2020 #23

Tautological Nonsense ProfessorGAC Oct 2020 #24

This! Thekaspervote Oct 2020 #26

Norpath isn't a nut. nsd Oct 2020 #27

. Hassin Bin Sober Oct 2020 #29

That is the dumbest forecast I've ever seen Marius25 Oct 2020 #30

He has been doing this for the last 104 years. LiberalFighter Oct 2020 #31

Well, You Made Me Laugh! ProfessorGAC Oct 2020 #34

LOL-Trump ain't getting 300 EV's this time n/t Just_Vote_Dem Oct 2020 #32

Probably designed to get a few stupid Trump supporters to bet big on Trump Quixote1818 Oct 2020 #36

Maybe you should BGBD Oct 2020 #37

They'll soon be 24/27 nt Sunsky Oct 2020 #38

Allow me to throw in another from a nut on facebook. Xolodno Oct 2020 #40