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catbyte

(37,258 posts) Sun Oct 11, 2020, 06:00 PM Oct 2020

538 National Poll: 2016 vs today [View all]

Link to tweet

In 2016, @FiveThirtyEight's final polling average was Clinton 45.7%, Trump 41.8%. Today, it's Biden 52.2%, Trump 41.9%.

But beyond deficit, even more damning for Trump is the 5.9% undecided/3rd party share - less than half of 12.5% share four years ago. Far fewer late deciders.

Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Replying to @NateSilver538

Biden's lead in our national polling average is up to 10.3 points. There's no sign that things are getting better for Trump; the ABC/Post poll showing him -12 postdates his leaving the hospital. The USC tracker has also been getting worse for Trump.

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Interesting that that thing is only .1% higher than in 2016. He hasn't expanded his cult one bit.

30 replies

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Highlight:

538 National Poll: 2016 vs today [View all] catbyte Oct 2020 OP

Undecideds Ananda62 Oct 2020 #1

Republicans undecided on abandoning Trump ThoughtCriminal Oct 2020 #29

It also shows how brutally unpopular Hillary was, through no fault of her own. bearsfootball516 Oct 2020 #2

And they're essentially the same candidate policy-wise. Yavin4 Oct 2020 #3

our candidate's unfavorables in 2016 were lots worse redstateblues Oct 2020 #6

But not on policy. Yavin4 Oct 2020 #8

To a degree you are correct, however Joe and Kamala are I believe much more Sherman A1 Oct 2020 #12

I agree with you. They both connect with people. Buckeyeblue Oct 2020 #25

I don't know about that. PTWB Oct 2020 #26

+1. Misogyny and small-town bias of the EC. radius777 Oct 2020 #27

Sadly, yes DeminPennswoods Oct 2020 #10

It breaks my heart but it's absolutely true peggysue2 Oct 2020 #16

This is good for those that are concerned and saying the polling was the same as 2016 DLCWIdem Oct 2020 #4

2016 election has zero relevance to 2020. People looking at 2016 are wasting beachbumbob Oct 2020 #5

I thought it was interesting that his numbers have not moved in 4 years. Sorry you didn't. catbyte Oct 2020 #7

Trumps numbers do not matter, the anger and energy of the opposition does. beachbumbob Oct 2020 #9

I disagree Sherman A1 Oct 2020 #13

2018 was the major shift. TwilightZone Oct 2020 #14

We will see Sherman A1 Oct 2020 #15

Trump has kept his same base (IMO racists and other bigots will always support a racist), but Doodley Oct 2020 #11

+1000 smirkymonkey Oct 2020 #19

Trump has the Fox News/talk radio crowd-- brainwashed andym Oct 2020 #17

This is not 2016 SoonerPride Oct 2020 #18

I don't get how Trump's numbers are the same. Marius25 Oct 2020 #20

Come election day, his numbers will be much lower..November 3,..9pm, Eastern Time.. Stuart G Oct 2020 #22

Trump got 46% of the vote in 2016. honest.abe Oct 2020 #23

Maybe a bit lower but probably a lot. Statistical Oct 2020 #30

real clear politics average at the end of the 2016 campaign tells a somewhat different story. onenote Oct 2020 #21

The trend is more important than the number... cbdo2007 Oct 2020 #24

It is different but has its own challenges. radius777 Oct 2020 #28