General Discussion

Rstrstx

(1,399 posts)

45. One sunbelt state can replace PA

Sat Oct 17, 2020, 10:28 PM

Oct 2020

As long as MI and WI flip back. The smallest sunbelt state that’s up for grabs, AZ, would suffice if we pick up NE-02 as well. I have a better feeling about AZ than GA or FL. Democrats have tended to overperform their polling numbers in places like AZ and NV the past few years while the same cannot be said of eastern states.

Having said that, the Trafalgar group tends to model the best case scenarios for Republicans and they have Biden up in MI, WI and PA. They notably got PA and MI right in 2016 but missed NV.

Also, wasn’t polling for Biden weaker in late September than it is today?

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Biden's internals has him up 350 Electoral Votes [View all] Drunken Irishman Oct 2020 OP

Thanks. elleng Oct 2020 #1

But really close. LisaL Oct 2020 #2

Still too damn close COL Mustard Oct 2020 #35

Maine-02. I've been there, those people obviously don't get it. dem4decades Oct 2020 #4

PA is too damn tight for comfort... regnaD kciN Oct 2020 #3

It's all too tight for comfort. dem4decades Oct 2020 #5

You want him to get 535 too? CaptYossarian Oct 2020 #8

Beat a horse dead, then beat a dead horse. I ain't stopping till the Trump presidency is gone. dem4decades Oct 2020 #11

Just like what Chief Brody did to that first shark. CaptYossarian Oct 2020 #12

We're gonna need a bigger vote. n/t whopis01 Oct 2020 #46

You must make bumper stickers for a living. CaptYossarian Oct 2020 #47

Agreed. NT aaaaaa5a Oct 2020 #6

Thank you Awsi Dooger Oct 2020 #7

Virginia certainly shifted significantly blue between 2004 and 2008. Drunken Irishman Oct 2020 #9

Yeah what is crazy is VA really was only a battleground for two Presidential elections. Statistical Oct 2020 #13

Methinks the same will happen to Texas. Yavin4 Oct 2020 #23

Obama was a once in a generation candidate. PTWB Oct 2020 #15

That wasn't the only reason Virginia shifted. Drunken Irishman Oct 2020 #19

Obama helped a little dsc Oct 2020 #24

Outliers and emphasis Awsi Dooger Oct 2020 #16

You claimed states don't shift that quickly... Drunken Irishman Oct 2020 #21

California went for Nixon Marthe48 Oct 2020 #25

You didn't address the self-identified conservative aspect at all Awsi Dooger Oct 2020 #28

I addressed your point that states never shift Democratic that quickly. Drunken Irishman Oct 2020 #29

Arizona is trending in the right direction JonLP24 Oct 2020 #38

One big thing though is that AZ has a changing electorate dsc Oct 2020 #26

AZ has been movimg to purple for quite some time. Sinema beat McSally for senate Vivienne235729 Oct 2020 #34

My only concern is the fake email "scandal" Eid Ma Clack Shaw Oct 2020 #10

The Post story is going absolutely nowhere nt Fiendish Thingy Oct 2020 #14

Respectfully disagree Windy City Charlie Oct 2020 #17

The right wing echo chamber seems to be the only ones carrying on about it. dem4decades Oct 2020 #18

I wonder what the 538 percentage would be Awsi Dooger Oct 2020 #20

It was in their grassroots session yesterday with the campaign manager. Drunken Irishman Oct 2020 #22

I would think good internal polling would be small c conservative. DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2020 #27

Link to source? nt USALiberal Oct 2020 #30

There is no source. It was pulled from a video with Jen O'Malley Dillon, Biden's campaign manager... Drunken Irishman Oct 2020 #31

OK, cool, thanks!! nt USALiberal Oct 2020 #32

Great catch grantcart Oct 2020 #37

This don't mean dick. SpankMe Oct 2020 #33

Texas needs to be a swing state IronLionZion Oct 2020 #36

A 5 point MOE is close enough for tRUMP to cheat his way to a win. IMO. NT SayItLoud Oct 2020 #39

PA is clearly the most important state. radius777 Oct 2020 #40

One sunbelt state can replace PA Rstrstx Oct 2020 #45

3 states to watch on Election night. RicROC Oct 2020 #41

As a Floridian, I am cautiously optimistic ... jb5150 Oct 2020 #42

It's too close to call. RandySF Oct 2020 #43

I reviewed the map and had two scenarios this morning... George II Oct 2020 #44