The good news is 5% is a pretty large win. (Reply #18)

In the discussion thread: IBD/TIPP Shows Much Tighter Race [View all]

Mon Oct 19, 2020, 10:36 AM

18. The good news is 5% is a pretty large win.

Year Democratic Margin (+ for D, - for R)
1992 5.6
1996 8.5
2000 0.5
2004 -2.4
2008 7.2
2012 3.9
2016 1.8

If the lowest margin polls is showing +5 that is pretty damn amazing.

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43 replies	Author	Time	Post
IBD/TIPP Shows Much Tighter Race [View all]	Inablueway	Oct 2020	OP
There sampling is problematic	edhopper	Oct 2020	#1
Sure...	Demsrule86	Oct 2020	#2
Joe's campaign manager has been sounding the alarm.	PTWB	Oct 2020	#22
No she hasn't...she just wants to avoid complacency...right wing BS with bad sampling.	Demsrule86	Oct 2020	#29
Yes she has.	PTWB	Oct 2020	#32
I don't believe it...may need money. And today she said they were ahead.	Demsrule86	Oct 2020	#36
You think she was lying?	PTWB	Oct 2020	#38
Polls exist on a continuum. Average them.	Loki Liesmith	Oct 2020	#3
Probably the same point that Joe's campaign manager has been making.	PTWB	Oct 2020	#23
Yeah she didn't actually say that	Loki Liesmith	Oct 2020	#25
You cherry picked an article that didn't include that quote.	PTWB	Oct 2020	#27
The concern is strong in this one...	Demsrule86	Oct 2020	#30
So much concern....	Jamesyu	Oct 2020	#4
THIS. EXACTLY. I think the media does this every year to show a tight race for ratings.	Vivienne235729	Oct 2020	#28
It's consistent with Biden's 8-point average lead.	RandySF	Oct 2020	#5
They also had Trump winning the popular vote by 2% in 2016	Eid Ma Clack Shaw	Oct 2020	#6
Welcome to DU	greenjar_01	Oct 2020	#7
Look at an average of the polls..However, national polls don't matter at this point. Nt	helpisontheway	Oct 2020	#8
BULLSHIT POLL!!!!!	ElementaryPenguin	Oct 2020	#9
pay no attention to polls or 538, its about GOTV now	beachbumbob	Oct 2020	#10
A/B rated pollster	Johnny2X2X	Oct 2020	#11
Also I think the 538 poll rankings are more about repeatability not absolute accuracy	Amishman	Oct 2020	#19
Accuracy is a major factor in 538's rankings.	Johnny2X2X	Oct 2020	#20
Investors Business Daily...	orwell	Oct 2020	#12
+10000	Demsrule86	Oct 2020	#37
Outliers gonna outlie	Fiendish Thingy	Oct 2020	#13
so, you're saying Biden's floor is a 5-point victory? or is your concern deeper??	PubliusEnigma	Oct 2020	#14
Sounds alright.	David__77	Oct 2020	#15
There are always outliers	Progressive dog	Oct 2020	#16
And?	Happy Hoosier	Oct 2020	#17
The good news is 5% is a pretty large win.	Statistical	Oct 2020	#18
The Investors Business Daily has a pro-GOP bias	My Pet Orangutan	Oct 2020	#21
IBD/TIPP has been between +5 and +7 for a long time...	regnaD kciN	Oct 2020	#24
20 polls show a steady lead, but lets find 1 to chicken out about.	linda52	Oct 2020	#26
How do you feel about Joe's campaign manager?	PTWB	Oct 2020	#33
Motivational...stay focused...maybe needs more money.	Demsrule86	Oct 2020	#39
Motivational...stay focused...maybe needs more money.	Demsrule86	Oct 2020	#40
No Recs.	GeorgeGist	Oct 2020	#31
I don't rec often.	PTWB	Oct 2020	#34
That's probably what it will be on election day	Azathoth	Oct 2020	#35
Nope...	Demsrule86	Oct 2020	#41
This message was self-deleted by its author	DemocratSinceBirth	Oct 2020	#42
Thank you for your input.	DemocratSinceBirth	Oct 2020	#43

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