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Response to Tom Rinaldo (Original post)

Sat Oct 24, 2020, 08:50 PM

27. less likely so

They were never really hidden, just underestimated. Poll model electorates now consider non-college white males differently and were quite on target in 2018. What the model electorate may in fact be missing this time is an apparently much higher than usual 18-29 vote. The 18-29 set has been counted on by both Howard Dean in 2004 and Bernie Sanders in 2020 and other losing politicians over the years. Barack Obama turned them out in 2008 and won big. He did less well with them in 2012 and won smaller. Hillary did even worse. Bernie counted on turning them out this year and we know how that ended up.

A huge effort funded by a lot of outside funds has gone into turning them out this year. The Trump failure on covid has had an unusually direct impact on the daily lives of 18-29 year olds. They have lost jobs heavily and most social venues are closed as well as many college campuses. These folks are connecting to the fact that elections really do matter in their day to day personal lives.

There would be no solid reason for polling firms to adjust the model electorate. The "youth vote" has been promised for years and other than 2008 has never really shown up. However if it does what it appears to be doing, it will break the models outside the margin. In short, things may not be as close as they appear, by as much as 3 or 4 percent.

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Arrow 54 replies Author Time Post
Tom Rinaldo Oct 2020 OP
dalton99a Oct 2020 #1
Oscarthegreat Oct 2020 #19
Proud Liberal Dem Oct 2020 #2
Tom Rinaldo Oct 2020 #3
The Mouth Oct 2020 #8
Iggo Oct 2020 #49
radius777 Oct 2020 #52
Thekaspervote Oct 2020 #4
exboyfil Oct 2020 #5
DENVERPOPS Oct 2020 #10
Tom Rinaldo Oct 2020 #13
olegramps Oct 2020 #38
Talitha Oct 2020 #18
DENVERPOPS Oct 2020 #20
Cheezoholic Oct 2020 #6
not_the_one Oct 2020 #7
Granny M Oct 2020 #51
bucolic_frolic Oct 2020 #9
Cetacea Oct 2020 #11
greenjar_01 Oct 2020 #12
The Magistrate Oct 2020 #14
Hulk Oct 2020 #15
Tom Rinaldo Oct 2020 #17
Brainfodder Oct 2020 #16
AZ8theist Oct 2020 #21
Mr.Bill Oct 2020 #22
Windy City Charlie Oct 2020 #26
LiberalFighter Oct 2020 #23
greenjar_01 Oct 2020 #24
yonder Oct 2020 #41
SWBTATTReg Oct 2020 #25
LineReply less likely so
quaker bill Oct 2020 #27
Tom Rinaldo Oct 2020 #37
radius777 Oct 2020 #53
NorthOf270 Oct 2020 #28
C Moon Oct 2020 #33
azureblue Oct 2020 #29
Initech Oct 2020 #30
not_the_one Oct 2020 #31
C Moon Oct 2020 #32
OneBlueSky Oct 2020 #34
SWBTATTReg Oct 2020 #43
Sherman A1 Oct 2020 #35
Trumpocalypse Oct 2020 #36
Nitram Oct 2020 #39
nature-lover Oct 2020 #40
Name removed Oct 2020 #42
ismnotwasm Oct 2020 #44
zackymilly Oct 2020 #45
marble falls Oct 2020 #46
GETPLANING Oct 2020 #47
warmfeet Oct 2020 #48
Illumination Oct 2020 #50
Earthshine2 Oct 2020 #54
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