According to the least sanguine of the three, The Economist, Biden's chances of winning several key states are:
Pennsylvania - 88% (20 Electoral Votes)
Michigan - 93% (16 EVs)
Wisconsin - 91% (10 EVs)
With those three, plus all the Hillary 2016 states, Biden wins 278-260.
Personally, I don't see how Biden wins states like North Carolina (15 EVs - 65% chance of a Biden win), Arizona (11 EVs - 65%), or Florida (29 EVs - 74%) and loses one or more of the big three battlegrounds listed above. But I guess crazy things are possible, especially this election. So we can game out various scenarios, but almost all of them look very favorable for Dems.
If things go very well for us, we could be talking about winning all three of those additional three states, which results in a 333-205 blowout and probably the winner announced on election night, which would shut down the Republican election-stealing machine cold and be a thorough repudiation of Trumpism.
If we want to dream big -- and, after a second cup of coffee and a chocolate croissant, I'm willing to go there -- if Biden were to prevail in Georgia (16 EVs - 44% chance of a Biden win), Iowa (6 EVs - 38%), Ohio (18 EVs - 30%), and Texas (38 EVs - 27%), It's a 411-127 obliteration of the Trumplican Party.
OK, sugar-and-caffeine buzz is wearing off a little. I guess that truly is crazy. But I have to say, with 9 days to go, those of us who've been on the ledge for a while now and have carpal tunnel from all the hand-wringing really should come back in the window, wipe the pigeon poop off our shoes, take a deep breath, and have a nice cup of chamomile tea.
Note: The Economist is updating its forecast regularly (I even had to change some numbers while typing this), so the odds listed above may no longer be current by the time people read this post.
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