I don't believe the DMR/Selzer poll. Too much of a swing by independents in one month. [View all]

[highplainsdem]

See the DMR story:


https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/10/31/election-2020-iowa-poll-president-donald-trump-leads-joe-biden/6061937002/

But Trump has regained an edge with those who identify as independents — a bloc key to his 2016 win in Iowa. According to National Election Pool exit polling published by CNN, independent voters favored Trump 51% to 38% over Democrat Hillary Clinton that year.

In the Register’s September Iowa Poll, Biden led with independents 50% to 38%. But today, Trump wins them back and leads 49% to 35%.

“I think that the key to what's happening with President Trump is that he is leading with independents,” Selzer said. “That is a group that in Iowa in our September poll looked like it was swinging to Joe Biden, and it's come back to be a Trump asset.”

I think Iowa will be very close. But I don't see ANY reason why it would have gone from a tie a month ago to a 7-point Trump lead now.