Here's why I feel confident about Pennsylvania

[fishwax]

15. Just heard about Cumberland County specifically from Kornacki in MSNBC

Now look at the counties that still have votes outstanding. Some of them are huge Trump counties, like Cumberland, which Trump won by 17.8 points in 2016. Trump pulled 69k in 2016, but only 67k so far this year. So there are probably at least 2k votes for him in the uncounted mail-in ballots. But look at the democratic votes: HRC pulled 47k in 2016 and Biden only has 40k so far. So it seems likely that, even in this solidly Trump county, Biden is going to gain between 3k and 5k votes on Trump when the mail-in ballots are counted.

The mail-in count from Cumberland just came in: Trump pulled 9k and Biden 21k. A huge gain in the mail-in ballots from a county that Trump carried by double digits.

Every group of votes that gets returned is going to help Biden. Even the ones from Trump Country. Joe's going to bring this thing home in his home state in Pennsylvania.

Maybe it will even be one of a couple of counties near his hometown of Scranton--Luzerne County or Monroe County--that puts him over the top. In Luzerne Biden is 10k down from Clintons's total, so I expect a lot of Biden votes will come in, and Trump is already ahead of 2016 in that county, so I expect his numbers there will be smaller.

In Monroe, Biden is 2k behind HRC while Trump is even with his 2016 numbers.

In almost all the counties adjacent to Scranton's Lackawanna, Biden is running 2-5 points ahead of Clinton's margins, so that's another reason those Luzerne will likely come in big for Biden.