Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

Denzil_DC

(7,186 posts)
15. The author of this article has no medical qualifications, his background's in economics.
Mon Dec 21, 2020, 02:49 AM
Dec 2020

There is a high incidence of infection in London and the south east of England at the moment, that's not in doubt. If you look at the scenes of vast throngs of shoppers in London's Oxford Street etc. in the last week or two and the pathetically shabby mixed messages from Johnson & Co. as they've continued to mismanage their response to the pandemic, it's hardly surprising.

Talk of a "Super Covid" in such scaremongering terms at the moment isn't much help and seems to be ahead of the medical research. Mutations in the virus have been logged around the world for some time, and a number of them appear to have made it more contagious. Here's a more sober article from 15 December:

What you need to know about the new variant of coronavirus in the UK

On 14 December, the UK’s health minister, Matt Hancock, told parliament that a new variant of the coronavirus associated with faster spread had been identified in south-east England. This has led to widespread concern, spurred by newspaper headlines about “super covid” and “mutant covid”. Here’s what you need to know about this new variant.

What do we know about this new variant so far?

It was first sequenced in the UK in late September. It has 17 mutations that may affect the shape of the virus, including the outer spike protein, according to Nick Loman at the University of Birmingham in the UK, who is part of a team that has been monitoring and sequencing new variants. Many of these mutations have been found before in other viruses, but to have so many in a single virus is unusual.

So it has a whole bunch of mutations, not just one?

Yes. To put this in context, however, the coronavirus is constantly mutating and there are lots of variants with one or more mutations. In fact, by July, there were already at least 12,000 “mutants”. The number will be higher now, though many mutations are rare and the viruses carrying them often die out.

Hang on, there are more than 12,000 variants of the coronavirus?

There are tens of thousands that differ from each other by at least one mutation in the genome. But any two SARS-CoV-2 coronaviruses from anywhere in the world will usually differ by fewer than 30 mutations, and are regarded as all belonging to the same strain. Researchers instead talk about different lineages.

So what’s unusual about this one?

How fast it is spreading really caught the attention of researchers monitoring viral evolution. By 13 December, 1100 cases of the variant had been identified, mostly in the south and east of England, which is a lot because only a small proportion of viral samples get sequenced. “It’s the growth rate we are worrying about,” says Loman. “We are seeing very rapid growth.”

Are the mutations in this variant helping it spread?

We don’t know that yet. The variant is spreading faster than other strains in the same regions, but it isn’t yet clear why. By pure chance, some coronavirus lineages do spread more than others. For now, there is no clear evidence that this is due to these particular mutations. “At the moment, we don’t know if this is making a blind bit of difference,” says Lucy van Dorp at University College London.

How worried should we be?

It will take a combination of further monitoring and lab studies looking at the effect of the particular mutations present in this variant to find out if it really is more infectious. But so far, no mutation has definitively been shown to make any SARS-CoV-2 lineage more transmissible or more dangerous.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2263077-what-you-need-to-know-about-the-new-variant-of-coronavirus-in-the-uk/
I've decided to be careful and let everyone else be scared. Iggo Dec 2020 #1
☝️☝️☝️☝️ Thekaspervote Dec 2020 #3
Booster shots forever, that's what they're predicting, new variations still respond to vaccines Baclava Dec 2020 #5
I feel the same way The empressof all Dec 2020 #13
I approve of this most inspiring strategy :). n/t moonscape Dec 2020 #18
Same here, being careful Raine Dec 2020 #23
Morons not wearing masks or practicing social distancing exboyfil Dec 2020 #2
+1000 doubleplusgood Dec 2020 #47
I've been expecting this... 2naSalit Dec 2020 #4
Exactly what happened in 1918. Initech Dec 2020 #6
Unfortunately no angrychair Dec 2020 #9
There's going to be an end to this at some point. Initech Dec 2020 #10
The death rate on the 1918 flu was around 6 percent. roamer65 Dec 2020 #19
Yes angrychair Dec 2020 #52
This message was self-deleted by its author angrychair Dec 2020 #53
Very different situations angrychair Dec 2020 #54
we dont know how it will play out MFM008 Dec 2020 #27
As if this year didn't suck enough already MustLoveBeagles Dec 2020 #7
K&R mvd Dec 2020 #8
It seems that the vaccine addresses different strains...it works on a common protein needed for Demsrule86 Dec 2020 #38
so that article says it's easier transmitted qazplm135 Dec 2020 #11
Usual fearmogering greenjar_01 Dec 2020 #41
In Addition,... ProfessorGAC Dec 2020 #49
This. Horse with no Name Dec 2020 #56
Well I am now going with my N95, a paper mask over the outside, wrap around eye protection- 58Sunliner Dec 2020 #12
I've been wearing a automotive painting gas mask. roamer65 Dec 2020 #20
Sounds safe! Do you have to change the filters? 58Sunliner Dec 2020 #31
I will soon roamer65 Dec 2020 #37
Don't get me wrong, but this article is not science... blitzen Dec 2020 #14
Thanks for calming us somewhat. UTUSN Dec 2020 #16
true, it is speculation but even from the science community most of the info about covid hellno45 Dec 2020 #50
The author of this article has no medical qualifications, his background's in economics. Denzil_DC Dec 2020 #15
rec. Thank you for the info. MerryBlooms Dec 2020 #34
Five Stages of Grief...Some are LovingA2andMI Dec 2020 #17
What are the stages of sadism? BannonsLiver Dec 2020 #43
"these come from the BBC" The King of Prussia Dec 2020 #21
Umair Haque is a sobering voice on political and social trends but he isn't a doctor or a scientist Maven Dec 2020 #22
Momma Nature must be getting really pissed off with us Humans . . . Worried2020 Dec 2020 #24
Doctors on CNN said that all viruses mutate. BigmanPigman Dec 2020 #25
Article is behind a registration wall that I'm not signing up for. LudwigPastorius Dec 2020 #26
No serious medical authority will be able to answer that question at the moment. Denzil_DC Dec 2020 #28
No mystery as to why the spread is out of control. Wow. Again, thanks for the info. MerryBlooms Dec 2020 #35
This latest iteration may not be the "super bug." Chainfire Dec 2020 #29
World War Z. They're coming..... Hotler Dec 2020 #30
This is no "supercovid" and no more virulent than the most common. Hortensis Dec 2020 #32
It may not be as bad as stated Dem2 Dec 2020 #39
There is a major COVID hotspot in London and the south east of England. Denzil_DC Dec 2020 #46
Generally, in order to be more transmissible it would have to be more virulent. 58Sunliner Dec 2020 #33
Meh BannonsLiver Dec 2020 #36
And the experts have started speaking... The King of Prussia Dec 2020 #40
Thank you BannonsLiver Dec 2020 #42
I'm not sure these vaccines are going to be as high as 95% effective. Chakaconcarne Dec 2020 #44
Why? ibegurpard Dec 2020 #45
Here's a good article from New Scientist scipan Dec 2020 #48
Interesting and informative BannonsLiver Dec 2020 #51
I'm too burned out to be worried about it anymore. maxsolomon Dec 2020 #55
Latest Discussions»General Discussion»Super Covid is Here, and ...»Reply #15