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Response to Bucky (Original post)

Thu Jan 14, 2021, 07:20 PM

57. The Second One Is Statistical Nonsense

When working with a sample set that large, to suggest people "tend" to pick "round" numbers is BS.

Without any math needed, some subset of all those people would have been smart enough (intelligence & educational distributions) to intentionally pick the date totally at random with dice from a Yahtzee game.
There is also little evidence that aside from magician like forced choice, that people don't think randomly about dates. Of course, that's aside from memorable dates like their own bday or anniversary.

In addition, it's known that there is a maldistribution of birthdays because of conceptions around major dates.(Christmas, New Years, valentines day, commonness of April - June weddings, etc).
So expecting a distribution anything close to uniform as the basis for comparison, is inherently flawed.

Take a look at this link. There are simple bar charts in there that show both actual & expected births, by month and day of month, is not a uniform distribution. Takes 2 seconds to see there's nothing uniform about it.
https://www.panix.com/~murphy/bday.html

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