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JNelson6563

(28,151 posts)
Wed Jan 11, 2012, 11:21 AM Jan 2012

2012 will resemble 2004 very closely. [View all]

Remember the 2004 election? The heated primary, the hard-fought GE? Most of us do, it was a difficult time that ended in disappointment.

The primary that year was especially hard-fought. The Iraq war played into it and, it seemed at least, that those who didn't support the war got the most passionate supporters during the primary.

Here in my corner of the world there was a big Dean group. Didn't see anyone else with activity for the primary. Many liked Dean but wondered if he was as electable as Kerry. When they voted apparently they thought not as they followed the previous voting states w/Kerry as the winner.

Disappointing but Bush sucks so I'm in, I guess.

Well apparently that was the commonly held view. Our local Dem party was gung-ho to beat Bush. We were so active, moved thousands of yard-signs, bumper stickers, etc. Had 25 events that year and raised a shit-ton of money, it was awesome. I was there, day in and day out, helping to make it happen.

Daily people came in for lawn-signs, they'd throw money at us, tell us how much they hated Bush and went on their way. This played out many times a day. Guess what I never heard......

"I just love that John Kerry!"

Yeah, this Republican primary is shaping up to look an awful lot like that. The "conventional wisdom" voters are making sure Romney gets the nomination. They are banking on the hope that enough people hate Obama that they will turn to the R's for a candidate.

As we learned in 2004, hating the President is not enough, there has to be someone who inspires at least some passion on your side of the ballot in order to win.

Anyone else see similarities between this election and previous?

Julie

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I agree Renew Deal Jan 2012 #1
Yes, I meant the same but opposite JNelson6563 Jan 2012 #13
+1. Though Obama will continue to seek out politicasista Jan 2012 #27
Yep. And election night will come down to Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania to a lesser degree. onehandle Jan 2012 #2
Actually Obama is polling well against the GOP in VA & NC, but you are correct about Indiana. WI_DEM Jan 2012 #4
I believe Obama will win Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. And I think there will be a couple of yellowcanine Jan 2012 #21
I think Obama has a wider electoral map than Kerry, however, WI_DEM Jan 2012 #3
This message was self-deleted by its author politicasista Jan 2012 #25
So Diebold will pick the winner again? nt NorthCarolina Jan 2012 #5
Great piece, Julie. The difference that gateley Jan 2012 #6
I see the hate in very limited context JNelson6563 Jan 2012 #12
This message was self-deleted by its author politicasista Jan 2012 #24
Perhaps (I hope so) frazzled Jan 2012 #7
I agree. JNelson6563 Jan 2012 #11
I think that 2012 will be better than 2004 but not as good as 2008- somewhere in between IMHO Proud Liberal Dem Jan 2012 #8
No - I worked in Dem HQ in NC and I had ALOT of people here who LOVED Kerry including me. blm Jan 2012 #9
that's how it was here, in Michigan, on the ground. JNelson6563 Jan 2012 #10
well, I certainly am aware how Dean folks felt, but, there were reasons why blm Jan 2012 #15
I thought this might happen JNelson6563 Jan 2012 #16
It was McAuliffe and Clinton Dems that handed that election to Bush - Kerry worked his ass off with blm Jan 2012 #19
Yes, Dean essentially rebuilt party structures at the state level. eridani Jan 2012 #17
I agree blue_onyx Jan 2012 #14
This message was self-deleted by its author politicasista Jan 2012 #26
Strong analysis. Kicking this. nt Romulox Jan 2012 #18
You make a very good point. Major Hogwash Jan 2012 #20
Agree politicasista Jan 2012 #22
I read that as "2012 will resemble 2014 very closely" MrCoffee Jan 2012 #23
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