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Response to PortTack (Reply #3)

Tue Apr 6, 2021, 02:25 PM

4. I disagree that this is proven

Furthermore, 'approval' polls are inherently different (and more likely accurate) from predicting election results, because you are just measuring 'how someone answered' as opposed to relying on people 'following through with something' ... such as 'actually voting' rather than just 'being likely to vote'.

Final 538 odds of Hillary winning the morning of the 2016 election was about 7-3 odds. That absolutely does mean their polling was inaccurate because she didn't win. Things with 30% chance of happening ... obviously can happen.

This is especially so given that the election was decided basically on a mere 80K votes over 3 states.

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Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 5 replies Author Time Post
albacore Apr 2021 OP
elleng Apr 2021 #1
getagrip_already Apr 2021 #2
PortTack Apr 2021 #3
LineLineNew Reply I disagree that this is proven
Hugh_Lebowski Apr 2021 #4
abqtommy Apr 2021 #5
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