General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: Am I the only one looking forward to not having to wear a mask. [View all]Ms. Toad
(34,062 posts)If you count exposures that will give you COVID, there are a whole lot more i of those i exposures indoors than on a jogging path.
This isn't exactly how it works (and the numbers are a bit exaggerated to be large enough to be understandable), but it is useful to explain the concept:
Going to a very crowded wedding reception, where you hang around pinnacles, circulate the room, over a several hour period, in an area where COVID is high and vaccination rate is low might create 50 exposures that would give you COVID. If you're vaccinated with an nRNA vaccine, you'd have a 2.5% chance (.05 x 50) of walking away with COVID. With J&J, a 12.5% chance.
Move the wedding party to an area where 70% of the people are vaccinated, the COVID infection rate is low, and people are masked, and the number of exposures that would cause COVID will drop dramatically. If it drops to 1 exposure, rather than 50, your chance of walking away with COVID drops to .05% (.05 x 1). With J&J, a .25 chance (.25 x 1).
The exaggeration is in the number of COVID-causing exposures at a single event - it is far more likely that even in a wedding with tons of people you would only encounter 1 COVID-causing exposure (and none at most weddings in a safe area with people still wearing masks). All of the super-spreading weddings I am aware of have been tracked back to a single person as the weeding patient zero. But i hope the larger numbers show how your intuition works out with the vaccine efficacy rates to match your intuition Over time, in an area with high infection rates, low vaccination rates, and early mask removal, you will build up to those 50 COVID causing exposures a lot faster than if you stick to the jogging trail in an area with low infection and high vaccination.