General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: Only 36% in USA have been fully vaccinated. 28% in my state. Why nobody in masks in supermarkets? [View all]Ms. Toad
(34,062 posts)You are claiming that 100% is accurate to the nearest .0001.
.0001 x 5 million = 500 dead people.
Because we already have 112 dead people (as of May 3, when many have only been vaccinated for a few weeks), the ultimate number of dead vaccinated people, over a year's time, will likely be far higher than 500.
Let's say the duration of vaccination is 3 months (1/4 of a year - likely a significant over-estimate) for all of the 5 million people. The vaccination is supposed to be good for about a year, so 4 x actual dead = 448 dead over the year effective .
Now - factor in the fact that this data was gathered primarily when community mitigation has been in effect. That means that most of those vaccinated people have only minimally encountered the kind of exposure that would cause COVID because we are wearing masks, because we are avoiding indoor gatherings, because we are social distancing.
Since we've effectively been given permission to hang out together indoors without masks or social distancing (and the reality is that everyone, not just the vaccinated, will take this as permission), the number of COVID-causing exposures is about to dramatically increase. On the other hand, the weather is warmer so people will be outside. But, on average, most of us will be in more situations that could give us COVID. The 95% is tied to exposures that could cause COVID. So let's conservatively say the exposures that could cause covid double. That will also double the breakthrough rates (5% x double # of exposures = double the number of cases), and double the deaths. So 224 for a quarter. That makes 896 cases (as opposed to the 448 at the current exposure rate).
Those non-zero extra deaths that arise because of our failure to mitigate are on the CDC, and on us, if we don't continue to mitigate until the community transmission rate (combination of vaccinated individuals and community infection rate) is low enough to safely remove our masks.