General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: Don't believe the bullshit that people who are vaccinated aren't getting really sick [View all]Ms. Toad
(34,066 posts)The .003 was a snapshot in time, when infections rates were low, mitigation was in place, and delta was barely a twinkle in anyone's eyes. It is NOT - it is looking at a photo of the good old days. The good old days of May are not predictive of how well unvaccinated people will fare now that COVID is rampant, somewhat over 95% of cases are Delta, and most people are still not wearing masks.
Mathematically - as the pandemic grows, and more vaccinated people become ill, the number you are calling a measure of "risk" will also grow - because the numerator (# ill) changes significantly as more people become ill, and the denominator (# vaccinated) is barely changing at all. Becuase it never was a measure of risk.
To use an analogy: If you look at the risk of death of people born in 1990 - right now it looks pretty good - since very few people (relatively speaking) die before age 31. So if you live your life believing that because you were born in 1990 you are invulnerable because your risk will always be miniscule, you might make really stupid choices. And I hope you can see that over time your risk of death will grow as you age. This is essentially the same calculation you are suggesting represents a fixed risk for those who are vaccinated. It doesn't. Over time more vaccinated people will become ill (just like more people born in 1990 will die), increasing the "risk."
The proper measure for risk is a compares the number of vaccinated people who are ill to the number of unvaccinated people who are ill
Under the best of circumstances, the effectiveness of the mRNA vaccines is 95%. That means for every 100 unvaccinated people who get COVID, 5 vaccinated people will.
Currently, according to the most recent Mayo Clinic report, the effectiveness of Pfizer is 40%. That means for every 100 unvaccinated people who get COVID, 60 vaccinated people will also get it.
That is a significant risk. Yes - it is considerably lower than the risk for unvaccinated people. BUT it is far more than .003% under the current circumstances.