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In reply to the discussion: Dear Moderates: The Left Isn't Why McAuliffe Lost Virginia [View all]FBaggins
(26,697 posts)This always happens. Regardless of how the election turned out, one side will say that the true lesson is that we need to move further in their direction in order to win next time... and the other side will say exactly the opposite. If we won, it's because of (insert side here). If we lost it's because of (insert other side here). The same thing is true between the two parties, not just for clashes within the party.
But here's what this misses in the current environment. Who are we trying to convince?
This appeal is titled "Dear Moderates" - but misses the point that it is those moderates who have to make the decision on which way to go from here. And I'm not talking about just Manchin/Sinema or a handful of recalcitrant "moderates" who have held things up in the House. I also don't care whether you want to label them as "not really moderates - they're captured by their donors" or "they're really republicans". I'm talking about 54 specific people: Four blue senators in AZ/GA/NH/NV and 50 members of the House who are potentially on the bubble.
It doesn't really matter whether "progressives" believe that they are the problem or not. Almost none of their seats are in any danger. But there are about 21 blue House members who won in 2020 by fewer than five points and another 29 who won by ten or fewer points.
People are paying attention to the headline races (VA/NJ governors) and trying to spin what the results mean... but the underlying shift was substantial. Whether you see it as 12 points (VA) or 15 (NJ) or even more (the TX special election appears to have shifted ~20 points)... almost every one of those 54 Democrats is potentially in jeopardy depending on how the next 12 months go.
So it's a good thing that the piece is directed at "moderates" - because they're the ones who need to be convinced.
One place to start? Maybe stop assuming that we know what the people want based on polls that have shown for several cycles now that they don't know what people think or what will influence their votes.