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Time for change

(13,714 posts)
Fri Nov 16, 2012, 10:54 PM Nov 2012

Hmmm… Why Was Karl Rove So Adamant that Romney Not Concede Ohio? [View all]

When Ohio was called for Barack Obama on Election Night, thereby pushing him over the top in the Electoral College, Karl Rove didn’t take it very well, as he encouraged Mitt Romney not to concede for several hours. In fact, Romney didn’t concede until after Obama had won enough states to win the election even without Ohio. From the Washington Guardian:

The prominent Republican strategist and former Bush White House guru didn’t seem able to deal with Mitt Romney’s loss on Election Night. When the network he was appearing on, Fox News, called that Ohio had voted for President Barack Obama, thereby effectively ending the election, Rove strongly pushed back.

"I think this is premature," Rove said, insisting that only part of the vote had been counted. "I don't know what the outcome is going to be, but we gotta be careful about calling things when we have like 991 votes separating the two candidates."

Rove put up so much protest, in fact, that anchor Megyn Kelly traveled back into Fox’s studio to speak with their statisticians and experts who were calling each state. Even before Rove almost had a conniption, Fox in fact had been one of the last to call Ohio for Obama.

Rove insisted that only part of the vote had been counted? As we all know, states are routinely called for one candidate or another when only part of the vote is counted – based on statistical analysis of a combination of the current vote count, exit polls, and what parts of the state have yet to be counted. So what was Karl Rove so sure he knew about the vote count – or looming vote count – that none of the network statisticians knew, even at FOX news? To consider that question, let’s go back to 2004:


Election Night 2004

In the official 2004 Ohio vote count, George W. Bush beat John Kerry by about 118 thousand votes, a margin of about 2.5%. But according to the final Ohio exit polls, John Kerry was predicted to win by a whopping 4.2% – thus producing a huge discrepancy between the exit polls and the official vote count.

Prior to Election Day 2004, it was evident that Ohio was the most critical swing state in the country. Late on Election Night, it became apparent that whoever won Ohio would win the presidency. TV commentators discussed how the situation looked very bad for George W. Bush. Even the right wing political hack Robert Novak acknowledged that Bush had little chance of winning Ohio – and thus the election.

So what happened then? Stephen Spoonamore, a computer expert and close associate of Michael Connell, who was widely known as “Karl Rove’s IT guru”, provided a likely answer to that question in a sworn affidavit on October 26, 2008.

During the evening and early morning on the 2004 General Election in Ohio, on my own computer I was watching the results of incoming counties and precincts. I believed there was a more than likely chance County Tabulators had been programmed to manipulate votes…. As early results showed Kerry ahead, I noticed a trend in a very few counties (I believe I noted 8 counties on election night) that at about 11 p.m. suddenly began reporting radically different ratios of Kerry to Bush votes. All in favor of Mr. Bush. This sudden rate of change… resembled a fraud technique called an Intelligent Man In the Middle, or KingPin Attack. This type of attack requires a computer to be inserted into the communications flow of an IT system…

Other experts found additional data indicating Bush's increase in votes from these counties, and Kerry's decrease in votes… When information about the SmartTech IT routing switch became public… I again stated that we now have confirmation of a KingPin, or Intelligent Man in the Middle position had been created… The SmartTech system was set up precisely as a KingPin computer used in criminal acts against banking or credit card processes and had the needed level of access to both county tabulators and Secretary of States computers to allow whoever was running SmartTech's computers to decide the output of the county tabulators under its control… The SmartTech computer would as the results of the evening proceeded be able to know how many votes Bush needed to steal from Kerry, and flip enough votes on the desired county tabulators to reverse the outcome of the election…


The aborted testimony of Michael Connell

The SmartTech system that Spoonamore referred to was operated by Michael Connell – “Karl Rove’s IT guru”. Two days after Spoonamore’s affadavit, attorneys filed a motion to compel testimony of Connell regarding his knowledge of the workings of the GOP computer systems. On October 31 a federal judge ordered Connell to submit to a deposition on possible election manipulation. Connell gave the deposition on November 4, providing as little information as possible, but eventually he was forced to admit that “he brought Triad and SmartTech into the Ohio election game”.

When it became apparent that Connell would testify in the case, Connell was warned not to fly his plane. Cliff Arnebeck, the Ohio lawyer who brought the suit and subpoenaed Connell, warned the U.S. Justice Department that Connell’s life might be in danger, and requested witness protection. Connell never did get to testify. On December 19, shortly before he was due to testify, he died in a plane crash, presumably caused by his plane running out of gas.


What happened on Election Night 2012?

If up to the point where the TV networks were discussing how hopeless Ohio looked for Mitt Romney on Election Night 2012 seems to you to be eerily similar to Election Night 2004, you’re not alone. As in 2004, Ohio was the critical swing state. As in 2004, the situation looked very bad for the Republican candidate. As in 2004, the Ohio election was being handled by a highly partisan Republican administration. As in 2004, Karl Rove seemed to be a key player. And as in 2004, SmartTech computers played a central role in tabulating the Ohio vote. As explained here two months prior to the 2012 election:

In 2012 the current Ohio GOP Secretary of State Jon Husted plans to once again use SMARTech for the 2012 Ohio Presidential Election. It would be interesting to know how SOS Husted plans to utilize SMARTech and if he will admit knowledge of the use of SMARTech. Will the computer IT architecture be similar to the one created in 2004 where Stephen Spoonamore claimed the architecture was a classic Man-In-The Middle attack format for the ability to manipulate vote totals.

But there were a couple of big differences between 2004 and 2012. One is that the Republican candidate apparently was substantially further behind in Ohio in 2012 than in 2004. And the other difference is that – as we found out soon – it turned out that the Democratic candidate didn’t need Ohio to win the election. So apparently for one or both of those reasons we didn’t see a repeat of 2004 in 2008. Perhaps the decision was made to pull back when it became apparent that even if he won Ohio Romney couldn’t win the election. Perhaps the decision was made a little sooner, when the approximate magnitude the number of votes needed became apparent.

In any event, despite all the evidence to the contrary, both Karl Rove and Kenneth Blackwell (Ohio Secretary of State in charge of the Ohio election in 2004) denied any knowledge of SmartTech. Democracy Now! Producer Mike Burke summed up the situation two months prior to the 2012 election:

Do you think Karl Rove and Ken Blackwell need to take lie detector tests? How can they possibly deny knowledge of SMARTech with a straight face? Will Ohio election integrity folks check into the status of the use of SMARTech in the 2004 and 2012 elections? Perhaps for the integrity of the vote totals in Ohio it would seem like a pretty good idea.

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Chaff ... Scuba Nov 2012 #1
Rove's Man in the Middle: ORCA RobertEarl Nov 2012 #27
OK, I could be wrong here but, PotatoChip Nov 2012 #125
You make a good case RobertEarl Nov 2012 #126
I think Anonymous claim regarding hacking of ORCA is true. Tutonic Nov 2012 #2
ORCA was a system to get out the vote, having nothing to do with vote counting. After 8Pm you can't robinlynne Nov 2012 #5
But what if ORCA wasn't merely a GOTV program? I'm not a conspiracy nut but I catbyte Nov 2012 #23
We don't have to be "conpriracy nuts" to believe rove would Cha Nov 2012 #29
The entire vote count in Ohio is owned a company owned by Romney and Bain Capitral friends. robinlynne Nov 2012 #33
A mild but important caveat. hedda_foil Nov 2012 #130
How do you know that? Because Karl Rove said so? sabrina 1 Nov 2012 #64
"The truth is we know nothing about our own electoral system because it has been hijacked..." CrispyQ Nov 2012 #85
Agreed, but Sekhmets Daughter Nov 2012 #102
Do we know for a fact that ORCA really collapsed? Time for change Nov 2012 #6
There's a thread up about how ORCA failed. (updated) Cerridwen Nov 2012 #18
orca's claimed use was quackery tiny elvis Nov 2012 #28
I read the same femrap Nov 2012 #48
It did collapse. Here is some info on that: sabrina 1 Nov 2012 #93
If this is true, then they are heroes who will probably never receive the full credit. Baitball Blogger Nov 2012 #11
given Anonymous is so technically expert, I don't see why they wouldn't Swagman Nov 2012 #22
A couple of weeks femrap Nov 2012 #56
But we were just lucky this time in that Anonymous is on our side. It's only a matter of time Squinch Nov 2012 #100
The odds are against it... femrap Nov 2012 #121
But Republicans, it seems, are investing in voting machines. Which means they see the Squinch Nov 2012 #123
I believe that femrap Nov 2012 #134
It's a nonsense word my family uses to describe the expression in your eyes when Squinch Nov 2012 #140
If they are so "technically expert", why is the letter so techically inept? n/t RomneyLies Nov 2012 #136
Thom Hartman was talking about this today dflprincess Nov 2012 #30
wow. He does think it is anonymous. surprising. robinlynne Nov 2012 #47
Scary and awesome. Whew! lexw Nov 2012 #96
thanks for posting this marions ghost Nov 2012 #111
Then Anonymous should have no difficulty posting documentation that proves this point BlueStreak Nov 2012 #106
2004 was close enough to steal, not so much in 2012 liberal N proud Nov 2012 #3
In 2004, exit polls femrap Nov 2012 #53
I don't know if it was close enough to steal democrattotheend Nov 2012 #63
The 2004 mainstream translation of the polls may have said Bush was ahead arikara Nov 2012 #101
I meant the polls right before the election in 2004. democrattotheend Nov 2012 #105
why did Kerry concede? samsingh Nov 2012 #124
A lot more is known about the extent of the cheating now than it was on Election Day 2004 Time for change Nov 2012 #127
I think they used it, but their polling sucked... Barack_America Nov 2012 #4
Compelling stuff, from a dedicated skeptic. Robb Nov 2012 #7
Election protection advocates had a federal judge watching Ohio this year. They sued a few robinlynne Nov 2012 #8
I didn't hear about that Time for change Nov 2012 #10
will find one for you. The Ohio SOS put "patches" on the software a few days before the election. the robinlynne Nov 2012 #35
Husted bailed on Rove. He wasn't taking Federal rap for Rove in a losing effort. Ikonoklast Nov 2012 #83
Yes, and from what I've read, he went home tblue37 Nov 2012 #90
Yes. He did not want to be anywhere near his office if Rove decided to move without him. Ikonoklast Nov 2012 #91
Here: If you go to the link, there are 4 or 5 more links to read about it, within the article. robinlynne Nov 2012 #37
Thank you -- very interesting Time for change Nov 2012 #41
Yes it is! robinlynne Nov 2012 #43
Bob's attempts femrap Nov 2012 #55
My thoughts as well CitizenPatriot Nov 2012 #110
tinfoilhat bullshit. nt RomneyLies Nov 2012 #9
BS? Dude, accept the evidence. TheAmbivalante Nov 2012 #81
Nate Silver would say, "yes, they can be off by 8 points" RomneyLies Nov 2012 #84
When you assume... TheAmbivalante Nov 2012 #132
Rasmussen and Gallup were both off by wide margins RomneyLies Nov 2012 #139
You're obviously AGAINST investigation marions ghost Nov 2012 #145
Why Indeed? HangOnKids Nov 2012 #158
You forgot to add one... LanternWaste Nov 2012 #162
Wow, must have struck a nerve. Two conspiracy theorists I have on ignore have responded RomneyLies Nov 2012 #163
Bev Harris is not a welcome reference on DU and I would be careful quoting her Godhumor Nov 2012 #128
I don't care if she's Idi Amin TheAmbivalante Nov 2012 #131
Ohio does seem to have been stolen for Bush in 2004. StrictlyRockers Nov 2012 #12
I think it might have been rigged but not stolen democrattotheend Nov 2012 #61
The Ohio exit polls indicated a Kerry lead of over 4 percentage points in 2004 Time for change Nov 2012 #135
Blackwell and Rove are pure slime running down a rusty pipe. Auntie Bush Nov 2012 #13
Don't worry, it will be investigated MannyGoldstein Nov 2012 #14
OUTSTANDING post 7wo7rees Nov 2012 #15
maybe rove was acting to look good to his $$ - "look, Im trying to save the election" nt msongs Nov 2012 #16
Most of this makes sense to me. Is it regarded as paranoia? Why would Congress... Honeycombe8 Nov 2012 #17
Like a lot of other things Time for change Nov 2012 #25
The amazing thing is that if this was happening in Russia or Venezuela go west young man Nov 2012 #32
You're exactly right that that is the kind of thinking that empowers a Karl Rove Time for change Nov 2012 #38
Sorry to have just realized that you did mention the voting discrepancy of 2004. go west young man Nov 2012 #67
Important observation, Go West. iemitsu Nov 2012 #99
TFC, in 04 we blindly accepted that diebold rtassi Nov 2012 #87
Yes, there are so many things about this that are so difficult to understand Time for change Nov 2012 #118
Thanks for this post. Hopefully it will serve to dispel some of the extreme naivete Zorra Nov 2012 #19
another great read boomer55 Nov 2012 #20
Fascinating read. Thank you. K&R ProudProgressiveNow Nov 2012 #21
Rove knew he was fucked jmowreader Nov 2012 #24
Makes me wonder if femrap Nov 2012 #58
It does not matter if this is true or not Pakid Nov 2012 #26
Agree. There's no way to make the compuers reliable. People will not trust the vote. patrice Nov 2012 #34
There is nothing wrong or "backward" about requiring paper ballots.... reformist2 Nov 2012 #40
Yes, we need a much better system than we have Time for change Nov 2012 #44
I'm in OH... femrap Nov 2012 #59
KICK! patrice Nov 2012 #31
I think that this is what happened in 2004. yardwork Nov 2012 #36
Obama's team? hell no. the election protection advocates took steps robinlynne Nov 2012 #45
It's infuriating that the Democrats aren't investigating this. yardwork Nov 2012 #50
agreed. on both points. I like your election posts, yardwork. robinlynne Nov 2012 #52
Thanks! I don't know much about the election fraud, but I'm sure it happened. yardwork Nov 2012 #73
and when Duers believe "Obama took care of it", that means more election theft in the future.... robinlynne Nov 2012 #54
Obama said in his book he doesn't believe the "conspiracy theory" about elections being stolen. loudsue Nov 2012 #60
I hope that Obama is just saying that and meanwhile is actually taking steps to prevent fraud. yardwork Nov 2012 #75
no he is not taking steps. He nominated not one Commissioner to head the EAC in 4 years, the federal robinlynne Nov 2012 #114
That's crazy. That's irresponsible. Or worse. yardwork Nov 2012 #115
Believe me, Husted femrap Nov 2012 #62
Let's Explore The Motivations Of A Husted...... global1 Nov 2012 #70
Ken Blackwell femrap Nov 2012 #94
That we even wonder about it is the real tragedy sellitman Nov 2012 #39
much more plausible than the anonymous thingy arely staircase Nov 2012 #42
In the back of my mind, Obama's Justice Department should dig DEEP on this. Wouldn't it be just silvershadow Nov 2012 #46
Lots of debate, but one things for certain. JEB Nov 2012 #49
Knowing Rove like we do, I'm surprised that anyone thinks this is not a plausible scenario. nt. OldDem2012 Nov 2012 #51
It made for good TV... SomethingFishy Nov 2012 #57
I was afraid about them stealing votes in PA & OH Justice4All1 Nov 2012 #65
I Thought I'd Add This Link To Ailes Comments On Rove's Meltdown.... global1 Nov 2012 #69
Any doubters should go back and watch Rove meltdown. Very suspicious. joanbarnes Nov 2012 #66
Bravo - hope you appreciate reposts... JackRiddler Nov 2012 #68
Thank you Time for change Nov 2012 #119
Rove BlueinOhio Nov 2012 #71
Everyone here is forgetting We_Must_Organize Nov 2012 #72
And, despite all the evidence here and in 2004 IDemo Nov 2012 #74
I think you're right that it is more important to the PTB of both parties to support Time for change Nov 2012 #79
By "nothing is going to be done about this", I mean by elected officials and the DoJ IDemo Nov 2012 #82
great find pipewrench Nov 2012 #76
THIS IS FUCKING HUGE! chuckstevens Nov 2012 #77
A brilliant post malaise Nov 2012 #78
Hmm, Maybe Because It's Almost Impossible to Get Elected Iggy Nov 2012 #80
possible to have safe computer voting Phillip McCleod Nov 2012 #86
As far as conspiracy theories go, this one is well supported. Buzz Clik Nov 2012 #88
Lie detector my... DirtyDawg Nov 2012 #89
Most Excellent Post !!! - K & R !!! WillyT Nov 2012 #92
K & R Change has come Nov 2012 #95
This is very frustrating: lexw Nov 2012 #97
Excellent synopsis. bleever Nov 2012 #98
Thank you bleever Time for change Nov 2012 #116
This all seems to lend credibility to the claim by Anonymous. NorthCarolina Nov 2012 #103
Maybe, ... PrMaine Nov 2012 #156
Karl Rove made the changes himself in 2004 krobar659 Nov 2012 #104
Kick and Rec Kingofalldems Nov 2012 #107
Maybe the Democrats have finally hired some rat unfuckers Bucky Nov 2012 #108
Thom Hartmann on the Subject PrMaine Nov 2012 #109
Thom Hartman is usually reasonable, but I consider him WAY over the top on this tinfoil nuttery n/t RomneyLies Nov 2012 #122
Why? Care to counter what he says? Just saying I don't agree sabrina 1 Nov 2012 #129
Please elaborate PrMaine Nov 2012 #137
Giving air to this is no different than Limbaugh giving air to Birtherism RomneyLies Nov 2012 #138
That is Not a Reason PrMaine Nov 2012 #141
I have a rational reaction to the idea RomneyLies Nov 2012 #142
A Ragional Reaction that Cannot be Explained Rationally PrMaine Nov 2012 #143
There is no evidence to support the claim RomneyLies Nov 2012 #144
No PrMaine Nov 2012 #146
Even a hypothesis will have some evidence upon which it is based RomneyLies Nov 2012 #147
Evidence Time for change Nov 2012 #148
And every bit of that is as worthleas as the bullshit the Birthers cite n/t RomneyLies Nov 2012 #149
Your method of arguing is simply to assert your opinion without giving any reason for it Time for change Nov 2012 #151
Go look at the shit the birthers cite RomneyLies Nov 2012 #152
Here, here! PrMaine Nov 2012 #155
Well He Said It! We Should Just Believe It! HangOnKids Nov 2012 #160
Your 'evidence'. randome Nov 2012 #153
. Time for change Nov 2012 #154
Call it what you will PrMaine Nov 2012 #161
Evidence has always been there for election theft & it's never been dealt with. Will this finally mother earth Nov 2012 #112
Rove was expecting the Ohio central computers to crash... paparush Nov 2012 #113
K/R. Window Nov 2012 #117
My first thought when I heard he said don't concede was Rove thought he could steal the votes during pam4water Nov 2012 #120
He figured Husted and Kasuck would fix it n/t doc03 Nov 2012 #133
This kind of evidence-free speculation usually comes from watching too many dramas on TV. randome Nov 2012 #150
kick Zorra Nov 2012 #157
IMO Mr Dixon Nov 2012 #159
The simplest explanation is always the best zappaman Nov 2012 #164
+1 n/t tammywammy Nov 2012 #166
The simplest explanation is NOT always the best. Time for change Nov 2012 #169
Pay no attention: begin_within Nov 2012 #165
TREASON. lifebiomedguru Nov 2012 #167
Welcome to DU! hrmjustin Nov 2012 #168
AHA...makes me dream that Obama Team read our post about discounting the most Laura PourMeADrink Nov 2012 #170
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