About That Poll (NY Times) [View all]

[brooklynite]

This paragraph in the write up struck me as important:

Mr. Trump is winning 97% of those who say they voted for him four years ago, and virtually none of his past supporters said they are casting a ballot for Mr. Biden. In contrast, Mr. Biden is winning only 83% of his 2020 voters, with 10 percent saying they now back Mr. Trump.

That suggests that the main reason Biden is trailing is that his supporters have not come home yet.

It makes some sense. Trump has been formally running for president since he announced just after the 2022 midterms. He’s been indicted four times and each time his base inexplicably rallies around him. He’s had several real challengers in a Republican primary so he’s had to campaign.

In contrast, Biden has spent this time governing the country. His only real primary challenger, Rep. Dean Phillips, finished fourth in a two-man race in Michigan.

It’s a good bet that Biden’s supporters will ultimately come back to him as the campaign heats up.

https://politicalwire.com/2024/03/02/about-that-poll

Of course, not nearly as entertaining as "The Times is biasing its polling to help Trump."