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Fiendish Thingy

(15,764 posts)
14. The Times' polls are consistently outliers, to generate clicks and views
Sat Mar 2, 2024, 12:22 PM
Mar 2

About that poll:

Small sample size of 980
Undersample of Gen Z voters, just 16%
Republicans were 30%,( reweighted from actual sample of 28%), Dems 29%, Independents 34% - once again, Republicans oversampled, Dems significantly undersampled.

Actual national partisan affiliation, according to Ballotopedia:

As of October 2022, 48 million registered voters in these areas identified themselves as Democrats. At 38.78%, Democrats represented the single largest share of registered voters in the states and territories that allow voters to indicate partisan affiliation on their registration forms.
A total of 36.4 million registered voters identified themselves as Republicans, representing 29.42% of registered voters in these areas.
A total of 35.3 million registered voters identified themselves as independents or unaffiliated with any political party. This amounted to 28.55% of registered voters in these areas.
Approximately 4 million registered voters identified themselves as members of other political parties. This amounted to 3.25% of registered voters in these areas.

Party identification including leaners - Dem 43% GOP 49%

“Who did you vote for in 2020?” - Trump 34% Biden 44% Didn’t Vote - 18%
“Which 2024 primary did you/will you vote in?” - Dem 28% GOP 36% Unlikely to vote 28%

37% of respondents reported incomes of over $100k

The New York Times/Siena College poll of 980 registered voters nationwide, including 823 who completed the full survey, was conducted in English and Spanish on cellular and landline telephones from Feb. 25 to 28, 2024. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for registered voters and plus or minus 3.8 percentage points for the likely electorate. Among those who completed the full survey, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 4 percentage points for registered voters and plus or minus 4.2 percentage points for the likely electorate.

That’s a pretty big MOE- IIRC, most other pollsters are using sample sizes of around 2,000 with a MOE of around 2.5-3.0% for likely voters.

Weighting used something called the “L2 model”, which isn’t described or disclosed clearly, and so, should be eyed with caution. Weighting methodology is often the least scientific element of all the elements in a poll, which some veteran pollsters refer to as a not-so-educated guess based on their “gut”, “hunches”, or simply, bias.

Their was also a lot of incomprehensible gobbledegook about how many respondents from each state were used, but regionally, the South was over represented at 35% of the sample, with the Northeast only 20% (reweighted from actual sample of 22%), West at 23%, and Midwest at 22%.

Free link to cross tabs and methodology:


So, plenty of room for criticism, don’t you think?

About That Poll (NY Times) [View all] brooklynite Mar 2 OP
In context, it does make sense. TwilightZone Mar 2 #1
I hope Democrats are NOT taking up this bet without actually putting up LOTs of work riversedge Mar 2 #2
The race was always going to be close. TwilightZone Mar 2 #10
I just don't get what is so horrible about Biden, especially, in comparison to Trump. RKP5637 Mar 2 #3
Biden isn't horrible. Tennessee Hillbilly Mar 2 #17
Yep, exactly! RKP5637 Mar 2 #20
People think the state of America right now is horrible. All Mixed Up Mar 2 #41
Excellent summary! RKP5637 Mar 2 #48
That explanation of the poll makes sense. David__77 Mar 2 #4
yes samsingh Mar 2 #9
More polls ... Charging Triceratops Mar 2 #5
Thank you. Alliepoo Mar 2 #6
"Dean Phillips finished fourth in a two man race," LOL! Ocelot II Mar 2 #7
He's a spoiler so he has plenty of Republican cash to keep trying to spoil. emulatorloo Mar 2 #26
He doesn't seem to be very good at it, though. Ocelot II Mar 2 #27
He's horrible at it! emulatorloo Mar 2 #31
i think a lot more than 3% of trump's supporters have fled. look at the decline in attendance in his rallies samsingh Mar 2 #8
Rally attendance really isn't indicative of anything. TwilightZone Mar 2 #11
Unless people are lying, that quote makes it worse not better karynnj Mar 2 #12
Yeah, that's the part I choked on, too. Gidney N Cloyd Mar 2 #13
Many people are just not that into politics womanofthehills Mar 2 #16
Here's why it could be true Polybius Mar 2 #21
When you start to break polls down like this, the MOE becomes much bigger. All Mixed Up Mar 2 #42
Good points karynnj Mar 2 #44
The Times' polls are consistently outliers, to generate clicks and views Fiendish Thingy Mar 2 #14
Pollsters adjust for oversampling. TwilightZone Mar 2 #23
Actually it is a huge issue Fiendish Thingy Mar 2 #25
I'd like to add something to your signature line quote. barbaraann Mar 2 #32
How are 97% still voting for him edhopper Mar 2 #15
They know the primaries will be over. former9thward Mar 2 #18
You're telling us Trump is dropping out? HareKrishna Mar 2 #29
No. former9thward Mar 2 #40
Because most of the other 40% were always going to vote for him in November. TwilightZone Mar 2 #22
if Biden does not win big I will be shocked RANDYWILDMAN Mar 2 #19
Post removed Post removed Mar 2 #24
If you have a reason to dislike Political Wire, please share...... brooklynite Mar 2 #30
10% will now back trmp? spanone Mar 2 #28
(pssssttt... it's not true.) Think. Again. Mar 2 #33
I'm just going to say this vercetti2021 Mar 2 #34
I'm seeing this NYT poll given a lot coverage on a number of sites. sop Mar 2 #35
Joe and Dump tied with women at 46% d_b Mar 2 #36
You're always racing to DU to defend these chump-ass polls. Do you make a living from polling sciences? SoFlaBro Mar 2 #37
No. I'm a retired transportation planner. brooklynite Mar 2 #38
How do you know that the polls are not just made up? There is ZERO to validate accuracy since there is no election. SoFlaBro Mar 2 #39
You think someone just created this poll out of whole cloth? TexasDem69 Mar 2 #43
The poll is flawed videohead5 Mar 2 #45
I asked what is the method of verification. You know what you can do with your blessing. SoFlaBro Mar 2 #47
The article in the NYT is definitely flawed and the poll ain't worth much. nt BootinUp Mar 2 #46
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