The "Biden Replacement Theory": A Joke That's Not Funny [View all]

[regnaD kciN]

A COMMENT on Heather Cox Richardson post today.

The Biden Replacement Theory: A joke that's not funny.

WRITTEN BY STEPHANIE JONES
JUN 30, 2024

If you're going to engage in any discussions about replacing Joe Biden on the ticket, you should know a few unassailable facts that the media have left out of their hysterical drumbeat "coverage" of what "Democratic insiders" are saying:

1. Democratic "insiders" don't give the President advice through the media. They speak directly to him or to the people in his immediate circle. Anyone you see publicly calling on the President to step down is not close to him and does not have his ear. Yes, they may attend occasional briefings at the DNC or get invited to the White House holiday parties and annual Easter Egg Roll, and have their picture taken with him at fundraisers they pay good money to attend so they can get their picture taken. But they don't have real access to him and they can't be assumed to have his best interests in mind. Because the people who are actually close to him don't call him out on CNN and Twitter.

2. For some reason, the folks pushing and buying the Biden Replacement Theory seem to think (or want you to think) that picking a replacement would be smooth sailing and that we would end up with a consensus candidate that everyone is happy with.

But anyone with even a cursory knowledge of politics, in general, and Democratic politics, in particular, should know that that's not what would happen. Instead, it would be a bloody battle with knock down drag out fights and lots of angry people in the end. And whoever emerged from that would be bruised, battered, weakened, and forced to spend a good deal of the time and energy that should be focused on Trump, instead on trying to heal the deep inter-party rifts the choices opened and convince people in our own party to vote for them - people whose vote Joe Biden already had locked up.

3. And let's not even talk about what they would run on. No, let's talk about it.

What exactly would shiny new candidate run on? That they're younger than Trump? Because they certainly couldn't run on Biden's record. And there isn't a single person whose name has been floated who could run on a record that comes even close to his. Being governor of the most liberal state in the country, but no national experience? Being governor of a purple state, with no national experience? Being mayor of a small mid-western city whose only national experience has been as a Cabinet secretary?

Trump and his team would have a field day with this untested, unvetted new face whom most voters have never even heard of, much less know anything about.

4. The pundits keep conveniently failing to mention another critical sticking point, either because they don't understand how politics and elections actually work or they know but assume you don't. But I'm going to tell you, so now you'll know something they're not telling you:

In fact, it is objectively impossible to replace Biden at this point and have any hope of winning the general election, regardless how young and sparkly and exciting his replacement is for at least one simple reason: Ballot Access. A new candidate can only get on state ballots after they are nominated. And by the time the new magical unicorn to be named later is nominated, the deadlines for getting on state ballots will have passed, meaning they will not be on the ballot in enough states to win the Electoral College.

Perhaps a huge write-in campaign can be launched, but therein lies another problem. See #5

5. The new Great White Hope candidate can't run a successful campaign on fumes and fairy dust. It will take money. Lots and lots of money. Biden has lots and lots of money, more than enough to fund a kickass campaign. But that's HIS campaign's money and it can't be transferred to another candidate or campaign.

Which means the new guy or gal will have to start raising money from scratch. But they can only start after they've been officially nominated. Until then, they can't ask for or spend a cent.

They'll need to raise about a billion dollars to catch up. And they'd have to raise it immediately - like in a few days. It took Biden, the sitting President of the United States, leader of the party, several years to raise that much money. His replacement would have to do that in a few days - while desperately trying to heal wounds and introduce themselves to the rest of the country.

In fact, they'd have to raise MORE money than Biden because they'd have a much tougher campaign than he had - for example, trying to mount an all-out write-in effort after they missed the Ballot Access deadlines in most of the states.

So, as you can see, the Biden Replacement Theory is smoke and mirrors, a joke that’s not funny, that can't happen and, even if it could, would only result in a massive and devastating loss for the Democrats, a loss from which the party, and more importantly, the country, would never recover.

So please stop listening to the bloviating pundits telling you that the so-called “insiders” are secretly telling them Biden must go, and use your own common sense to assess how this would all play out. You will then see that this notion is half-baked, at best, and cynical, manipulative, and hellbent for disaster at its worst.

At the end of the day, President Biden and Vice President Harris are not going to be replaced. But the negative chatter, speculation, and hand-wringing about it can drag them down and make it harder for them to win in November.

Stop feeding the madness and focus on doing everything you can to ensure that President Biden and Vice President Harris win the 270 electoral votes they need for reelection. They are our ONLY hope of turning this country away from Trump and his Republican extremists and keeping us on the right road. Pining for a perfect candidate – who does not, never did, and never will exist – is a dangerous distraction.

Keep your eyes on the prize.