Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News Editorials & Other Articles General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

General Discussion

Showing Original Post only (View all)
 

Deek1935

(1,055 posts)
Wed Jul 17, 2024, 02:21 PM Jul 2024

Here is why a poll saying many Dems want Biden to drop out is to be COMPLETELY IGNORED. [View all]

#1: Those Dems who are in a snapshot poll saying Biden should drop out for a younger candidate would not now suddenly vote for Trump. In head to head matchups in the polls (for those who love polls), it is a tie race.

#2: Obviously opinions have been affected by the media onslaught on this and those turncoats shitting their pants and pushing the narrative based entirely on FALLACY and CONJECTURE.

#3: The average voter does not really understand how presidential elections actually work. It is an up or down vote on the performance of the incumbent while in office, and Biden is very strong on his record of accomplishment. It is about GOVERNING and other key structural factors. It is NOT about age, debates, polls, punditry, or donors. NONE of those are PREDICTIVE. There is ZERO evidence that Biden would lose on election day several months away, and ZERO evidence that Trump would win on election day several months away.

#4: Who would be the new "Super Candidate" guaranteed to win in a landslide? The average voter, and even these Congressional members, have no clue. None. There are TONS of different opinions. It would be BITTERLY CONTESTED sending the party into sheer chaos and deep division. People would come out of the woodwork screaming for this candidate or that candidate and this one or that one would be better. Voters would demand a say and would want a new contested primary.
There would be litigation. There would be ballot access issues. There would be HUGE challenges. Where is the evidence that a new candidate would absolutely be guaranteed to win on election day without the key predictive advantages of INCUMBENCY and a solid and smooth primary election win for Biden? It doesn't exist. The average voter doesn't consider any of this. Many do not understand how this all works.

My message to everyone is stop the bedwetting over snapshot non-predictive polls. Stop the fallacies and fantasies. Stop this political suicide nonsense. Get behind Biden because he is the candidate! Period.

78 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Good Post ProfessorGAC Jul 2024 #1
It is true. The average voter doesn't understand how this works, many politicians don't either. Walleye Jul 2024 #2
Agree On All Counts, Sir The Magistrate Jul 2024 #3
Nothing up my sleeve! PRESTO! Oopsie Daisy Jul 2024 #14
some people still trying to sow doubt. I smell Russians DoBW Jul 2024 #40
Yes. Among others. There are many who hate and resent Biden * Oopsie Daisy Jul 2024 #58
Fan mail from some flounders? GiqueCee Jul 2024 #15
I miss Bullwinkle. n/t SpankMe Jul 2024 #33
Well put fargone Jul 2024 #4
I agree with you. However, the alternate candidate would have to be Harris ProfessorPlum Jul 2024 #5
Kamala Harris SomedayKindaLove Jul 2024 #45
I'm talking about the 2024 primaries ProfessorPlum Jul 2024 #61
Gotcha, thanks, my bad SomedayKindaLove Jul 2024 #62
A complete solution like Michelle Obama / Harris might work. BrightKnight Jul 2024 #72
I have to disagree with #3 democrattotheend Jul 2024 #6
Biden has been an excellent President, probably the best in my over 50 years of voting Taraman Jul 2024 #17
Exactly! Many people vote emotionally. oldsoftie Jul 2024 #57
People take their everyday frustrations out on the incumbent's Deminpenn Jul 2024 #24
" In head to head matchups in the polls (for those who love polls), it is a tie race. " LudwigPastorius Jul 2024 #7
Ah, yes. A return to the "red wave 2022" composite poll RCP. lees1975 Jul 2024 #13
Sorry, I forgot that we only like the polls that show us as being ahead. LudwigPastorius Jul 2024 #16
Yes, and RCP has never done that. Even when we won. lees1975 Jul 2024 #22
Pay your money, take your choice. 538 says exactly the opposite. lees1975 Jul 2024 #23
RCP uses the simple average of different polls, not some "predictive" algorithm like 538. LudwigPastorius Jul 2024 #26
Which explains their errors since 2016, in light of 538's relative success. lees1975 Jul 2024 #37
When you use a poll aggregator, you have to Deminpenn Jul 2024 #27
Yes, RCP doesn't include the polls that are privately commissioned by the parties themselves. LudwigPastorius Jul 2024 #30
Schumer and Jefries' motives ae no more Deminpenn Jul 2024 #35
"with nary a mention of Biden or Harris" A Physicist Jul 2024 #69
K & R lees1975 Jul 2024 #8
I'm just so angry about this Bettie Jul 2024 #9
I can't believe this is still a thing. MustLoveBeagles Jul 2024 #11
Right? Bettie Jul 2024 #19
Anyone who dared come out to primary Joe would have been pilloried MichMan Jul 2024 #51
They could have made their case. Bettie Jul 2024 #59
That's the bottom line. It's not Trump's existential threat, it's "show me the money." lees1975 Jul 2024 #25
Polls were wrong in 2018, 2020, 2022. AGAIN. NEVER TRUST CORPORATE MEDIA POLLS. ancianita Jul 2024 #10
K & R h2ebits Jul 2024 #12
early on when i thought et tu Jul 2024 #18
100% Truth relayerbob Jul 2024 #20
What is wrong with the "name callers" who can't defend a point without trying to belittle fellow Democrats? farmboy Jul 2024 #28
Because it's the truth. They need to stop this SHIT. It is pure conjecture going down a fucked up rabbit hole. Deek1935 Jul 2024 #36
HEre is the defense of my point relayerbob Jul 2024 #55
I think thats untrue quakerboy Jul 2024 #68
Well your judgement is certainly wrong here. Hmmm No troll here. farmboy Jul 2024 #76
Who bullied you? relayerbob Jul 2024 #77
Keep saying it. Keep being wrong. farmboy Jul 2024 #78
I just cancelled my monthly donation to Adam Schiff ... aggiesal Jul 2024 #46
I was lectured by a bed-wetter BaronChocula Jul 2024 #21
These polls ignore the fact that the GOP may be able to keep a Biden replacement off the ballot in key states LetMyPeopleVote Jul 2024 #29
RSO rso Jul 2024 #42
You are WRONG LetMyPeopleVote Jul 2024 #47
RSO rso Jul 2024 #43
I'd like to know, why Butterflylady Jul 2024 #74
If anyone needs to be "kicked to the curb" it's oasis Jul 2024 #31
I am Riding with Biden Joe_michigan Jul 2024 #32
I just cannot understand that some of the people I trusted and supported want Joe Biden to step down. katmondoo Jul 2024 #34
Polls are the false flags of this contest. There will be a large attendance at November's polls. jaxexpat Jul 2024 #38
And Abstractartist Jul 2024 #39
#4 couldn't be truer. Plus the fact that this is all a right wing bull shit topic. C Moon Jul 2024 #41
All polls should be taken with a pillar of salt Rocknation Jul 2024 #44
WE ALREADY VOTED FOR HIM!! barbtries Jul 2024 #48
From what I can find... jmbar2 Jul 2024 #49
Biden peachpit24 Jul 2024 #50
Election-Polls-are-95-Confident, 60 Percent Accurate waterwatcher123 Jul 2024 #52
re: " how presidential elections actually work. It is an up or down vote on the performance of the incumbent..." thesquanderer Jul 2024 #53
cool story bro stonecutter357 Jul 2024 #54
We should not let the fear of Trump guide our decision. BarbD Jul 2024 #56
Thank you for this dai13sy Jul 2024 #60
After reading that AP article, I'll add a point number five: SouthBayDem Jul 2024 #63
When I saw one of the sources being the New York Post, my bullshit meter was off the charts!!! wolfie001 Jul 2024 #64
The voters don't understand what their motivations to vote are supposed to be so ignore them TheKentuckian Jul 2024 #65
Biden's approval rating is probably closer to the high 30's and as high as 40 standingtall Jul 2024 #67
Any one who wants to draft Kamala Harris to run instead of Joe Mblaze Jul 2024 #66
The main stream media is going to great pains to elect Trump. Emile Jul 2024 #70
We seem to have collectively forgotten praxEs Jul 2024 #71
The polls are broken Farmer-Rick Jul 2024 #73
Yes, agreed LymphocyteLover Jul 2024 #75
Latest Discussions»General Discussion»Here is why a poll saying...