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ColinC

(10,437 posts)
6. Looking at the fundamentals of the overall cycle, the motivations of voters, the crosstabs,
Thu Sep 5, 2024, 06:41 AM
Sep 5

The over performance of democrats with key groups in polls, massive Democratic over performance in special elections and the incumbent party advantage fundamentals laid out by Lichtman’s recent prediction. A combination of these factors with the understanding that polling might be cooking in a GOP bias based on 2020’s massive error in favor of the GOP, I am increasingly confident that Democrats will overperform current average polling by around 3-5% in most states.

I think at this point I am fairly confident in saying Democrats will win a trifecta this year.

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