PA-SEN: Pennsylvania Senate Race poll finds Bob Casey, Dave McCormick tied for first time

[Self Esteem]

7. Polling is fine.

1. It's silly to take just one poll as the truth. Always look at multiple. There will be polls that have his lead larger and polls that show a tight race. CNN isn't the only one. Emerson shows the race 48-44 for Casey - so close. Emerson is not the media. It's a university. Meanwhile, Redfield & Wilton has Casey +6. The problem is that there hasn't been any recent established polls beyond Emerson and now CNN. Quinnipiac's last poll was nearly a month ago.

2. The race is going to get closer. Pennsylvania is probably more conservative today than in 2012. Obama carried it pretty easily in that election. Casey was also up for reelection. He won by 9 points. It's not implausible that he does about half that, so wins by +6. Since Casey ran about four-points ahead of Obama in that election, and Pennsylvania appears to be a toss-up right now at the presidential level, that seems to check. If Casey runs four points better than Harris, that would put her win statewide at two points - or one-point better than Biden in 2020. I feel that's reasonable. I see no reason to believe Casey is running so far ahead of Harris that he would win the state by double-digits and she'd be locked in a close one. And since, as I said, Pennsylvania seems to be more conservative than in 2012 when they last held a senate election during a presidential election, it's not absurd to think Casey and Harris do worse by half than Obama/Casey, which checks with a 5-6 point lead for Casey and a toss-up for Harris.

The CNN poll is but one poll with a high MOE but I would not trust that Casey is up big. He is not likely to win reelection by wide numbers. But he'll win, I believe.