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unc70

(6,321 posts)
12. Probably some quirk of their Likely Voter model
Thu Sep 5, 2024, 12:54 PM
Sep 5

Polling typically transitions after Labor Day from registered voters to likely voters. While I (and they) can make a poll of registered voters come out pretty much any way I like, using a likely voter model makes it much easier. Just tweak the turnout of key voting blocs, and voila!, a horse race.

Latest Discussions»General Discussion»PA-SEN: Pennsylvania Sena...»Reply #12